چکیده:
In this paper، we investigate the existence and the nature of real exchange rate misalignment in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). To do this we estimated a cross country basic real exchange rate determination model for 1990-2012 and extracted historic trend of misalignment. The results imply that all OPEC countries have had misalignment -of different kinds though- in their real exchange rate. In order to ensure the robustness of results، we also focused on historic trend of real exchange rate misalignment in Iran، which was derived by model، and observed considerable consistency with realities of policy making and economic performances in Iran. This indicated the compatibility of the estimation results with countries’ actual events.
خلاصه ماشینی:
To do this we estimated a cross country basic real exchange rate determination model for 1990-2012 and extracted historic trend of misalignment.
In order to ensure the robustness of results, we also focused on historic trend of real exchange rate misalignment in Iran, which was derived by model, and observed considerable consistency with realities of policy making and economic performances in Iran.
In so doing, we estimate a cross country basic real exchange rate1 determination model for 1990-2012 in order to extract countries’ misalignment.
The first category includes those studies focusing on equilibrium exchange rate and its influencing factors or the relevant causal relations; among these studies, one may refer to Iimi (2006), Wang, Hui & Soofi (2007), Musyoki, Pokhariyal & Pundo (2012), Baak (2012) & Palamalai et al.
C. Net Foreign Asset Position (NFA): Basic macroeconomic models predict that debtor countries will need more depreciation of real exchange rate in order to generate the trade surpluses necessary to pay their external liabilities (Lee et al.
But as long as oil export revenue, as exogenous variable, has prevailing role in OPEC members trade balance, most studies considered oil revenue as proxy for trade openness in real exchange rate determinant models (MacDonald, 1997) and (Asgharpour et al.
Thus, the real exchange rate (RER) can be considered as a function of the following variables stated by mainstream studies such Edwards (1988), Montiel (1999), Terra & Valladares (2010), Schröder (2013), (MacDonald, 1997) and (Asgharpour et al.