چکیده:
To prevent further increases in energy consumption, the government of Iran commenced energy subsidy reform in 2010. This paper investigates the fuel conservation effects of the reform in Iran using a homothetic translog cost function that provides estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities of fuel demands. The percentage reduction in fuel demands is estimated using the likely effect of the reform on fuel prices. The results reveal that the reform may not be as successful as assumed. Under optimistic assumptions, the reform may reduce energy consumption marginally, and under pessimistic assumptions, it may increase energy consumption because of inelastic fuel demands and substantial substitution between fuels.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"This paper investigates the fuel conservation effects of the reform in Iran using a homothetic translog cost function that provides estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities of fuel demands.
For instance, some of the studies carried out at the sectoral level are Bölük and Koç (2010); for Turkey, Welsch and Ochsen (2005); for West Germany, Al-Mutairi and Burney (2002); for Kuwait, Christopoulos and Tsionas (2002); for Greece, Berndt and Wood (1975), Humphrey and Moroney (1975), Lakshmanan et al.
For instance, using a social Accounting Matrix Price Model, Perme (2005) concluded that removing the subsidies on refined petroleum products, natural gas, and electricity would increase their respective average national price indices by 19.
Using the estimated own- and cross-price elasticities of electricity, natural gas, and oil illustrated in Tables 2 and 3, and considering the percentage changes in real fuel prices in the first phase and overall energy subsidy reform period, we calculate the percentage changes in fuel demands in Iran.
The most optimistic results in Part III are from Model 2, which estimates 7% and 3% reductions in electricity and oil demand, respectively, and a marginal increase in natural gas demand after implementation of the first phase of reform.
To measure the impact of the first phase and overall reform on energy demand in Iran, a translog cost function of the energy market was estimated and the own- and cross-price elasticities of electricity, natural gas, and oil were derived."