چکیده:
The main purpose of this paper is analyses the short and long run relationship
between budget deficit and trade deficit in some MENA countries. The data cover
the period from 1971-2000 (and for I.R. IRAN 1959-2003).The relationship between
these variables will be analyses in short and long run by using Johansen
co-integration tests, ECM, and Granger causality test.
The empirical evidence provides support to the view of Ricardian Equivalence in
Iran (Islamic Rep.), Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, and Tunisia. But, the
empirical evidence proves the validity of Keynesian proposition (conventional
view) only Egypt, Bahrain, Oman, and Turkey.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"Abstract The main purpose of this paper is analyses the short and long run relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in some MENA countries.
Keywords: Budget deficit, trade deficit, twin deficit, Granger causality test, Johansen co-integration technique, Keynesian proposition (conventional view), Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis 1- Introduction Large and persistent budget deficit have occurred with current account deficits in many nindustrial and MENA countries over the past three decade.
The main purpose of this paper is analysis the short and long run relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in MENA countries.
3- Twin deficits in Iranian economy (1959-2003) One important characteristic of Iranian (public sector) economics is the persistence of budget deficit during 1959-2003, especially at the years of post-revolutionary period.
The other characteristic of Iranian economy during 1959-2003 is oscillatory trend in trade balance, especially in during 1989-2003 4- Econometric Methodology and Estimated Results In this paper, we will study the relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit, named as the twin deficit, in some MENA countries.
] Note: Optimal number of lags is chosen by using AIC and SBC Criteria 5- Summary and Concluding Remarks This paper explores the relationship between budget and trade deficits, named as twin deficit, in some MENA countries using annual time series data covering the period 1971-2000 (and 1959-2003 for I.
(1989), Effects of budget deficit on the current account balance: The case of Philippines, in Fiscal Policy, Stabilization and Growth in Developing Countries, IMF Press, Chap."