خلاصه ماشینی:
Geography and Environmental Hazards 24 (2018) A Climate Change Simulation of the Temporal Movement in the First and Last Fall and Spring Frosts in Iran Mohammad Daraeia1, Behrouz Sari Sarafb, Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoustc, Peyman Mahmudi d a Ph. D.
Global warming has caused changes in the agricultural climatic indices such as the date of occurrence of late spring and early fall frosts.
The results of the studies done by researchers in Iran and various regions in the world in recent and ensuing decades represent movement of the occurrence of fall frosts and the last spring frost toward early winter and late winter, respectively.
Simulated data of two future periods (2046-2065) and (2080-2099) by using the downscaling output of the two global climate models of GFCM21 and HadCM3 made the highest efficiency and the lowest simulation error in the temperature parameter estimation, being generated based on emissions scenarios (B1, A2, A1B) in version 5 of LARS-WG second group of data.
In general, the LARS-WG model has an acceptable ability to simulate the minimum temperature data of the studied stations in Iran and the existing error is random.
The results of the study indicate the movement of the first fall frost and the last spring frost in Iran is toward early winter and late winter, respectively, so that the first fall frost in the period 2046-2065 based on the GFCM21 model and the emission scenarios B1, A2 and A1B, will occur 13, 8 and 7 days later and in the HadCM3 model, and it will occur 9, 8 and 7 days later, respectively.
Keywords: Climate change, First fall frost, Last spring frost, LARS WG model, Iran.