چکیده:
طلاق یکی از مهمترین مسائل اجتماعی و جمعیتی امروز کشور به شمار میآید. در دو دهه اخیر میزان های طلاق در کشور روند صعودی داشته است. در مطالعه حاضر تلاش شد که وضعیت و روند تغییرات طلاق در استان فارس بررسی شود. برای این هدف اطلاعات سرشماری ها و نیز داده های ثبت احوال طی سال های 1390 تا 1398 تحلیل شد. رویکردهای عقلانی اقتصادی و گذار دوم جمعیت شناختی به عنوان مبانی نظری تحقیق حاضر در نظر گرفته شد. یافته ها نشان داد که نسبت طلاق به ازدواج طی سال های مورد بررسی روند صعودی داشته است. بیشتر طلاق ها در فاصله پنج تا ده سال بعد از ازدواج و در سنین اوج فرزندآوری اتفاق می افتند. یافته ها همچنین نشان داد که بین میزان بیکاری مردان و نسبت طلاق همبستگی مثبت و در مقابل بین میزان بیکاری زنان و نسبت طلاق همبستگی منفی وجود دارد. بین نسبت جمعیت با تحصیلات دانشگاهی و نسبت طلاق همبستگی مثبت وجود دارد. با توجه به نتایج این پژوهش به نظر می رسد که کاهش میزان بیکاری مردان و برگزاری کلاس های آموزشی برای زوجینی که پنج سال از زندگی مشترک آنها گذشته است می تواند شمار و نسبت طلاق را کاهش دهد.
Divorce is one of the most important social and demographic problems in Iran, today. Divorce rate has dramatically been raised in two past decades. The present study aimed to investigate the status and trend of divorce changes in Fars province. For the above purpose, the census data and civil registration statistic during 2011-2019 were analyzed. Economic approach and second demographic transition were considered as theoretical framework. Findings showed that divorce ratio has remarkably increased during 2011-2019 period in Fars province. The majority of divorces occur between 4 to 10 years after get married. Aged 30-34 individuals have registered the most number of divorce in Fars province. Findings also indicated that there was a positive correlation between unemployment rate for men and divorce ratio, while the mentioned correlation coefficient was negative for women. There was a negative correlation between population ratio with university degree and divorce ratio. According to the results of this study, reducing the unemployment rate for men and holding training courses for couples who are on fifth year of their marriage may decrease the divorce ration. Divorce is one of the most important social and demographic problems in Iran, today. Divorce rate has dramatically been raised in two past decades. The present study aimed to investigate the status and trend of divorce changes in Fars province. For the above purpose, the census data and civil registration statistic during 2011-2019 were analyzed. Economic approach and second demographic transition were considered as theoretical framework. Findings showed that divorce ratio has remarkably increased during 2011-2019 period in Fars province. The majority of divorces occur between 4 to 10 years after get married. Aged 30-34 individuals have registered the most number of divorce in Fars province. Findings also indicated that there was a positive correlation between unemployment rate for men and divorce ratio, while the mentioned correlation coefficient was negative for women. There was a negative correlation between population ratio with university degree and divorce ratio. According to the results of this study, reducing the unemployment rate for men and holding training courses for couples who are on fifth year of their marriage may decrease the divorce ration. Divorce is one of the most important social and demographic problems in Iran, today. Divorce rate has dramatically been raised in two past decades. The present study aimed to investigate the status and trend of divorce changes in Fars province. For the above purpose, the census data and civil registration statistic during 2011-2019 were analyzed. Economic approach and second demographic transition were considered as theoretical framework. Findings showed that divorce ratio has remarkably increased during 2011-2019 period in Fars province. The majority of divorces occur between 4 to 10 years after get married. Aged 30-34 individuals have registered the most number of divorce in Fars province. Findings also indicated that there was a positive correlation between unemployment rate for men and divorce ratio, while the mentioned correlation coefficient was negative for women. There was a negative correlation between population ratio with university degree and divorce ratio. According to the results of this study, reducing the unemployment rate for men and holding training courses for couples who are on fifth year of their marriage may decrease the divorce ration. Divorce is one of the most important social and demographic problems in Iran, today. Divorce rate has dramatically been raised in two past decades. The present study aimed to investigate the status and trend of divorce changes in Fars province. For the above purpose, the census data and civil registration statistic during 2011-2019 were analyzed. Economic approach and second demographic transition were considered as theoretical framework. Findings showed that divorce ratio has remarkably increased during 2011-2019 period in Fars province. The majority of divorces occur between 4 to 10 years after get married. Aged 30-34 individuals have registered the most number of divorce in Fars province. Findings also indicated that there was a positive correlation between unemployment rate for men and divorce ratio, while the mentioned correlation coefficient was negative for women. There was a negative correlation between population ratio with university degree and divorce ratio. According to the results of this study, reducing the unemployment rate for men and holding training courses for couples who are on fifth year of their marriage may decrease the divorce ration. Divorce is one of the most important social and demographic problems in Iran, today. Divorce rate has dramatically been raised in two past decades. The present study aimed to investigate the status and trend of divorce changes in Fars province. For the above purpose, the census data and civil registration statistic during 2011-2019 were analyzed. Economic approach and second demographic transition were considered as theoretical framework. Findings showed that divorce ratio has remarkably increased during 2011-2019 period in Fars province. The majority of divorces occur between 4 to 10 years after get married. Aged 30-34 individuals have registered the most number of divorce in Fars province. Findings also indicated that there was a positive correlation between unemployment rate for men and divorce ratio, while the mentioned correlation coefficient was negative for women. There was a negative correlation between population ratio with university degree and divorce ratio. According to the results of this study, reducing the unemployment rate for men and holding training courses for couples who are on fifth year of their marriage may decrease the divorce ration. Divorce is one of the most important social and demographic problems in Iran, today. Divorce rate has dramatically been raised in two past decades. The present study aimed to investigate the status and trend of divorce changes in Fars province. For the above purpose, the census data and civil registration statistic during 2011-2019 were analyzed. Economic approach and second demographic transition were considered as theoretical framework. Findings showed that divorce ratio has remarkably increased during 2011-2019 period in Fars province. The majority of divorces occur between 4 to 10 years after get married. Aged 30-34 individuals have registered the most number of divorce in Fars province. Findings also indicated that there was a positive correlation between unemployment rate for men and divorce ratio, while the mentioned correlation coefficient was negative for women. There was a negative correlation between population ratio with university degree and divorce ratio. According to the results of this study, reducing the unemployment rate for men and holding training courses for couples who are on fifth year of their marriage may decrease the divorce ration.
خلاصه ماشینی:
با توجه به نتايج اين پژوهش به نظر ميرسد که کاهش ميزان بيکاري مردان و برگزاري کلاس هاي آموزشي براي زوجيني که پنج سال از زندگي مشترک آنها گذشته است ميتواند شمار و نسبت طلاق را کاهش دهد.
نتايج بررسيهاي صورت گرفته درباب وضعيت زناشويي در ايران (مرکز آمار ايران ، ١٣٨٨ و ١٣٩٢) بر اساس اطلاعات سرشماري سال هاي ١٣٧٥، ١٣٨٥، ١٣٩٠ و ١٣٩٥ نشان داده که نسبت طلاق همواره روندي افزايشي داشته و ميزان خام طلاق که در سال ١٣٧٥ برابر با ٠/٦ در هزار بوده در سال ١٣٨٥ به ١/٣ و پس از آن در سال ١٣٩٠ به ١/٩ در هزار رسيده است .
براي تحليل وضعيت طلاق دو شاخص اقتصادي و فرهنگي يعني ميزان بيکاري مردان و زنان و نسبت جمعيت با تحصيلات دانشگاهي به تفکيک جنس براي شهرستان هاي استان محاسبه شده است .
يافته ها شاخص نسبت افراد مطلقه يافته ها (شکل ١) نشان ميدهد که سهم افراد بي همسر بر اثر طلاق در استان فارس طي سال هاي ١٣٩٠ تا ١٣٩٥ براي زنان و مردان سير افزايشي طي کرده است .
1242 40/0 35/0 30/0 25/0 20/0 15/0 10/0 5/0 0/0 8/0 11/0 14/0 17/0 20/0 23/0 26/0 29/0 نسبت جمعيت زنان با تحصيلات دانشگاهي نتيجه گيري يافته ها و تحليل داده هاي ثبت و سرشماري از آن حکايت داشت که سهم افراد بي همسر بر اثر طلاق در استان فارس طي سال هاي ١٣٩٠ تا ١٣٩٥ براي زنان و مردان سير صعودي طي کرده است .
Key words: divorce, unemployment rate, university degree, economic rational approach, second demographic transition.