چکیده:
Although the first method in statistical risk assessment of crime is a static one, in which only statistical calculations of risk factors and background such as the criminal record of the offender are considered. However, ignoring dynamic and variable factors such as the offender's current addiction to narcotics causes this method to be unable to accurately assess the risk of crime. For this reason, other methods such as dynamic statistical assessment and combined statistical/clinical assessment have been gradually invented, which, in order to increase accuracy in assessments, pay attention to factors such as "crime-inducing needs" and the extent of "susceptibility" of offenders to rehabilitation programs. Crime-inducing needs are another expression for dynamic risk factors that are effective in the current situation of the individual and addressing them can reduce the risk of crime through the rehabilitation and treatment of offenders. Studying the latest developments in statistical risk assessment of crime shows that this approach not only opposes the idea of rehabilitation, but also by emphasizing the three principles of risk, need, and susceptibility, provides a suitable ground for the formation of a targeted rehabilitation.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Therefore, gradually other methods such as dynamic statistical assessment and combined statistical/clinical assessment have been invented, which, in order to increase accuracy in assessments, pay attention to factors such as "crime-inducing needs" and the extent of "susceptibility" of offenders to rehabilitation-treatment programs.
His method is based on statistical calculations of probabilities, and it attempts to assess the risk of crime by considering the similarities of the individual with people in whom the existence of criminal risk has been previously proven (Ibid, 64).
Naturally, from this perspective, the assessment of criminal risk - unlike clinical assessment - is not based on identifying the causes of the criminal phenomenon and discovering the real factors of committing the crime, but rather, the assessment is reduced to a semiotic process regarding risk factors; a process in which, for assessing risk, instead of focusing on the individual characteristics of the offender's personality, attention is paid to their statistical scores.
The data obtained from clinical methods are finally placed in a scoring table, along with static risk factors, and are subject to the statistical assessment process.
Today, crime-generating need is one of the determining factors in correctional-therapeutic programs in various legal systems, because it can indicate dynamic risk factors of crime in offenders; factors that represent the main guidelines for changing offenders (-Hannah (Moffat, 2005, 34).
(Grubin, 2004, 97) In addition, it was pointed out that dynamic statistical scales use findings from clinical assessments within their own structure to assess crime-generating need factors.
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