چکیده:
The Iranian banking system faced various imbalances in the 2010s, most notably a deep asset-liability mismatch. Based on the findings of this study, even according to the official financial statements of banks, it can be said that from the middle of this decade, the banking system—centered around private banks—effectively became insolvent, and by the end of the decade, its capital was completely depleted and turned negative. The evaluation in this study shows that the total imbalance of banks (comprising both hidden and visible imbalances plus the capital required to meet the minimum capital adequacy ratio) under the assumption of an 8% capital adequacy ratio, increased from approximately 600 trillion tomans at the end of 2016 to over 2,220 trillion tomans by the end of 2021. The establishment of private banking under weak monetary-banking governance infrastructure (particularly the lack of appropriate monetary policy and banking supervision), the exacerbation of Dutch disease, and the stabilization of the exchange rate in the second half of the 2000s due to a surge in oil revenues can be considered the main factors leading to the formation of the banking crisis in the 2000s and its continuation into the 2010s. On the other hand, the flawed monetary policies of the 11th administration in Iran since the 1979 revolution, followed by the increased rescheduling of loans, overvaluation of bank assets, passive tolerance of unhealthy and insolvent banks due to weak banking supervision, and the policy of exchange rate stabilization, are assessed as the most significant factors exacerbating the crisis in the 2010s. To properly and decisively address this crisis and resolve the actual imbalances, the establishment of a powerful and independent banking supervisory authority is deemed essential.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Other Key Banking Concepts and Indicators Numerous financial concepts and indicators have been proposed in the literature of this field to assess the situation of banks and the banking system, including: capital adequacy ratio, bank debt to the central bank, non-performing loans to total facilities ratio, return on assets ratio, profit margin ratio, interest-bearing asset and liability ratio, volume of excess reserves, deposit interest payment to total deposit increase ratio, liquidity and monetary base growth rate, share of money and quasi-money in liquidity, etc.
Accordingly, by including seven loss-making non-listed banks (including Melli, Sepah, Keshavarzi, Maskan, Tose'e Ta'avon, Tose'e Saderat, and Mehr Iran banks) which also recorded losses, and relying solely on the [inaccurate] data from the banks' financial statements, it can be said that out of a total of 28 active banks in the country at the end of this decade, more than half of them faced the issue of imbalance in the income-expense flow.
From this perspective, considering that resolving the asset-liability imbalance in the banking system first requires resolving the existing accumulated loss (liability), the net volume of this liability based on the appearance of the banks' financial statements at the end of 1400 and spring 1403 is at least 2700 and 5100 thousand billion Rials respectively, and if the banks' balance sheet data are made realistic, it is assessed to be much higher than these figures.
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