چکیده:
The adoption and implementation of a comprehensive income tax (CIT) are crucial from multiple perspectives, including increasing sustainable public revenues, enhancing transparency, reducing tax evasion and the shadow economy, and ensuring all economic sectors contribute to national development. Given the instability of the government’s current revenue base, diversification and expansion are necessary. Taxation is both a civic duty and the government’s primary revenue source. Among various taxes, personal income tax (PIT) is a key and transparent revenue stream; however, it remains underutilized in Iran and requires further development. With the submission of the Direct Tax Amendment Bill to the Islamic Consultative Assembly on 17/08/1402 (November 8, 2023), which centers on comprehensive income taxation, it is essential to examine the various dimensions of its implementation, particularly its human and social effects. This study investigates the role and impact of comprehensive income tax on Iran’s economic conditions for the long-term human development of its citizens. Using quarterly tax revenue data from 2001–2022 (1380–1401), including taxes on business income, real estate income, public sector salaries, private sector salaries, and miscellaneous income as components of comprehensive income tax, the study measures their influence—as independent variables and proxies for CIT—on the Human Development Index (HDI) using a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model. The Johansen cointegration test confirms a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables. The estimation results indicate that increases in real estate taxes and public sector salary taxes have a negative short-term effect on HDI but a positive long-term impact. In contrast, taxes on business income and private sector salaries show a consistently positive and lasting effect on HDI, as the growth in tax revenues from these bases—naturally enhanced by PIT implementation—enables the government to redistribute income to lower-income groups, thereby improving human development indicators. Therefore, in the initial years of CIT implementation, the government must adopt supportive policies for lower-income deciles to compensate for the temporary welfare loss caused by HDI decline.
خلاصه ماشینی:
ir Article Information Abstract The issue of approving and implementing tax on total income from various aspects, such as increasing sustainable public revenues, enhancing transparency, reducing tax evasion and the underground economy, and the participation of all economic sectors in the country's development, is very important; because the existing revenue base of the government must be diversified and expanded due to various factors.
In this research, quarterly data of tax revenues in the period 2001-2022, including tax on business income, tax on real estate income, tax on public salaries, tax on private salaries, and miscellaneous incomes, were considered as components of tax on total income, and their impact as an independent variable and proxy for tax on total income on the Human Development Index (HDI) was measured using the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BayesianVAR) model.
In fact, since the taxation structure and essentially the tax governance of the country will be transformed after the approval of the bill to amend the Direct Tax Law, namely the Tax on Total Income dated 2023/11/08, it is necessary that before its approval and implementation, the potential effects of the new taxation process from various dimensions, especially the Human Development Index (HDI), be examined and researched so that through accurate diagnosis and the removal of legal and executive flaws, the set goals can be better achieved.
(Tash, Barnameh News-Analytical Weekly, 2011) If progressive taxation is applied to total income, it can effectively improve income distribution in a society (Pejavian, 2010) An ecological study was conducted in 177 countries where information on taxation, tobacco prices, and also the Human Development Index (HDI) was available in 2014.
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