چکیده:
Crises stemming from the financial sector of economy and their possible effects on the structures of the real sector of economy including total factor productivity (TFP), labor productivity, employment and economic growth are the principal problem statement of the present study. To analyze of this problem two non-linear models have been specified. Both of them employ Iran’s macro data as well as indices generated using approaches like State-space models, over the 1985-2020 period. The first model, utilizing Markov-Switching model, beside the covering of the the crisis effects, captures the dynamics and persistence of the shocks on the dependent variable. The second one, for the robustness checking of the previous model, tries to narrow its concentration on, and by a general and theoretical specification examines, the non-linear effects of the independent variables. This model is estimated using non-linear least squares (NLS) estimators. Study results, verifying the dynamics of all dependent variables, show that both models highlight the negative and significant effect of the currency crisis. Also, the persistence of the adverse effects cannot be rejected. Under the second model when the interrelation effect of currency crisis and credit contractions is included into the model the effects become more deteriorating. Furthermore, the nonlinear effect of research and development and mitigating heinous effects of crisis by other controlling variables cannot be rejected. Theses results have some saliant policy implications for Iran’s Economy.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Scientific Quarterly of Islamic Economics and Banking, Issue 41, Winter 2022 - Pages 81-116 An Investigation into the Impact of Currency Crises on the Real Sector of Iran's Economy: Response of Productivity, Employment, and Economic Growth Article Type: Research Ali Vakili 1, Ebrahim Rezaei 2, Farhad Ghaffari 3 Received Date: 2022/07/16 Acceptance Date: 2022/09/01 Abstract The main issue of the present study is the crises arising from the financial sector of Iran's economy and their potential impact on the basic structures of the real sector, including total productivity, labor productivity, employment growth, and economic growth.
This is because in knowledge accumulation-based models, which were expanded by Grossman and Helpman 1 (1991), the decrease in domestic demand and the resulting decrease in the proportion of the labor force allocated to research and development cause a long-term negative effect of these changes on total factor productivity.
3 (2020), by employing a dynamic econometric model and fitting the changes in total factor productivity to the stochastic variables resulting from various types of financial crises, reached the conclusion that deep recessions cause a significant decrease in the productivity level across different economic sectors.
Scientific Quarterly of Islamic Economics and Banking, No. 21, Winter 2022 95 ∅2− = (9) The first line of expressions in number (9) indicates that the specified equation imposes a constraint on the coefficients of the lagged productivity growth rate as follows: ∅4+2∅5+3∅6=0 (10) If this constraint is not imposed, then two possible estimates for from the series of equations (9) will be equal to: 3(∅2+∅3) 1=3−2∅−∅ 4 5 2(∅2+∅3) 2=2−∅+∅ 4 6 (11) In any case, the absolute magnitude of which is the long-term effect of the crisis on productivity, is the primary goal of this estimation.
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