چکیده:
In spite of very easy financing conditions globally, investment has been rather weak in the aftermath of the Great Recession. What explains this apparent disconnect? The evidence suggests that, historically, uncertainty about the future state of the economy and expected profits play a key role in driving investment, and financing conditions less so. As a result, investment after the Great Recession appears to have been broadly in line with what could have been expected based on past relationships. A stronger recovery of investment would seem to depend on a reduction in economic uncertainty and expectations of stronger future growth.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Evidence suggests that, historically, uncertainty regarding the future state of the economy and expected profitability plays a key role in investment decisions, along with limited financing conditions.
Investment fell during the recession and did not recover in many countries (Gross real non-residential private fixed capital formation1) percentage points percent (Refer to page image) Change in investment / Gross Domestic Product from 2007-December 2014 (right side) Maximum decrease in investment from December 2007 at the level (left side 2) Australia= AU; Belgium =BE; Canada= CA; Switzerland = CH; Germany = DE; Denmark= DK; Finland =FI; France =FR; Britain= GB; Italy= IT; Japan = GP; Korea =KR; Netherlands= NL; Norway=NO; New Zealand = NZ; Sweden = SE; United States of America= US.
Despite low interest rates and extensive available financing resources in the capital market, two main explanations have been provided for the weakness in business investment.
Return on physical capital, unlike the return on financial assets, has remained at a high level (percent) Bonds 3 Equities 2 Real return 1 (Refer to page image) 1990-2007 2009-14 Canada =CA Germany =DE Britain = GB Japan = JP United States =US 1.
Contribution to non-residential investment growth (Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the third quarter of 2014) 1 percent (Refer to page image) United States Japan Italy Britain France Germany Canada Real change Excess stock returns Profits Economic uncertainty Country fixed effect Has-haier2 Disturbance term Credit growth 1.
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