چکیده:
The new insights that the scenarios of guiding the public opinion of the Iranian society on the horizon of 1410 create for the decision-making managers in the fields of social security, media and cultural policy-making strengthen strategic thinking and prevent surprises in the face of future phenomena. The main issue of this research is to explain the complex dimensions and conditions of managing and guiding public opinion in Iranian society with a forward-looking approach. The nature of the present research is qualitative and its main goal is to gain new insights into the management and guidance of Iranian public opinion to achieve the right approach to this important social phenomenon. In this way, Using the methodological capabilities of the science of future studies and the knowledge and experience of experts in this field, the most important actors in the field have been identified and introduced. Furthermore; discovering the effective factors on guiding the public opinion of the Iranian society in a ten-year horizon, key drivers and the main uncertainties in this field are among the valuable achievements of the research. In this study, in addition to identifying and analyzing the five scenarios of "life in hell", "emotional divorce", "fire under the ashes", "patriarchy" and "life becomes sweet", four important Wild Cards in guiding public opinion in Iranian society in Horizon 1410 was determined, than If any of these happen, the conditions of society will change completely and the scenarios will need to be rewritten.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The main goal of this research is to identify potential scenarios in the field of managing and guiding the public opinion of Iranian society in a ten-year horizon so that, based on them, the cultural and media managers of the Islamic Republic can make strategic, precise, and timely decisions.
Of course, parallel to the planning carried out by the cultural and educational activists of the front of the Islamic Revolution, 162 opponents of revolutionary Islamic thought also recognize the importance of centers for thought production and human resource training Cultural and social factors affecting the field of guiding the public opinion of Iranian society in the horizon of 1410 ـ The trend of changing the demographic pyramid status of Iranian society in the next decade: This change in status is not only in terms of reducing the total population of the country and increasing the general age of society towards aging, but also, given the diversity of ethnic groups living in the geography of the country, significant differences will occur in the demographic pyramid transformations of ethnic groups and religions living in the geography of Iran.
The most important and first step to discovering the drivers and key uncertainties of the guidance of the public opinion of Iranian society in the horizon of 1410 is identifying the most important factors affecting this field using the PEST method at four levels: "political and security", "economic", "cultural and social", and "science and technology", by utilizing the knowledge and experience of experts.
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