چکیده:
An overview of social science history implies numerous methodological controversies about the rationale of historical explanation or causal inference in a particular case with the design of "single case research". In this paper, three methodological criticisms of historical explanations of a particular case were first described. Then, the main answer was the methodologists who defended historical research or internal explanations, who argued that such criticisms were based on a particular logic of causal inference, which governed quantitative or statistical research tradition. the historical explanation and causal inference in a single case uses a different logic called Bayesianism.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Some social science methodologists have argued that studies possessing a single-case research design or unique case study (N = 1) inevitably suffer from the problem of "indeterminacy"³, meaning that regarding the testing of claims and explanatory hypotheses or causal inference, in fact, nothing valid is yielded from those investigations.
Recently, some social science methodologists in the qualitative tradition have claimed that social research possesses three different logics for causal inference: the frequency distribution logic based on statistics and probability in quantitative research; the eliminative logic of Mill's methods of agreement and difference and its derivatives in applied qualitative research; and the Bayesian inference logic 9 in case studies (Pedersen & Beach, 2013; 2016).
Process Tracing and Bayesianism History-oriented methodologists in the social sciences have long pointed out that in research where we are faced with a single case, causal inference is only possible through the decomposition and analysis of the process that links the cause to the effect.
Finally, qualitative methodologists and case study methodologists in social and political sciences have claimed that the Bayesian approach has been implicitly and without methodological self-consciousness prevalent in almost all historical explanations of individual cases (Bennett & George, 2005; Goldstone, 2003; McKeown, 2004; Collier & Brady, 2004).
More specifically, qualitative methodologists in the last decade have shown in various ways that Bayesian analysis clarifies the logic of inference in process tracing in case or historical studies (Bennett, 2008; Rohlfing, 2013; Beach & Pedersen, 2013; 2016; Humphreys & Jacobs, 2015; Mahoney, 2016; Fairfield & Charman, 2017; Barrenechea & Mahoney, 2017).
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