چکیده:
The main purpose of the political systems from establishing and providing a license to the security institutions is to use these intelligence activities to protect policy makers from the loss of security or security threats. In this regard, the main philosophy of the intelligence cycle is to warn against future anti-security events; on this basis, intelligence defeat is defined as surprise and unpredictable crisis. The purpose of this study is to explain the 'optimal warning cycle' in intelligence – security activities and to answer the main question of “what stages form the optimal warning cycle?”. In order to answer this question, this study uses library study and the Delphi method in three phases and the idea of 7 experts in intelligence and security field to reach a theoretical stability and consensus. As a result, the proposed optimal cycle was formed with five peripheral stages: need assessment, warning, vigilance and prevention and a connecting core in the form of assessment and production of 'knowledge'.
خلاصه ماشینی:
1 - 26 The Optimal Warning Cycle in Intelligence-Security Organizations (Components and Indicators) Mahmoud Salehi 1 2 Mohammad Madbari Received Date: 2018/06/10 Acceptance Date: 2018/08/11 Abstract The primary goal of political systems in establishing and authorizing the activities of security institutions is to protect policymakers' intelligence activities from being caught off guard and from losing security-creating opportunities or facing security-destroying threats.
Therefore, the optimized warning cycle, which is presented below, is considered the final result of the Delphi technique: / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Figure number 3: Optimized warning cycle / / / 17 In explaining the different loops of the optimized warning cycle, the following points can be stated: Each of the stages of the cycle consists of the following sub-sets: A) Needs Assessment: problem identification, mission selection, information domainology, guidance B) Supervision: semiotics, indicator construction, witness finding, clue finding, collection in various purposeful and non-purposeful types (monitoring and surveying) C) Warning Construction: analysis and investigation, estimation, information synthesis, assessment, prediction, future studies, warning generation D) Alerting: warning transmission, warning follow-up, obtaining warning response E) Prevention: preparation, action in the form of determination, maintenance, and confrontation F) Evaluation and Knowledge Production: occurs in all stages as well as during the transition between stages.
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