چکیده:
Geopolitical theorists consider population as one of the key and power-making components of any country. This matter in our country has undergone evolution from the past to the present. Studies show that not only have population control policies left undesirable effects over the past two decades, but the country has also not appropriately undergone demographic transitions and is currently in a stage of generational threat, which indicates a serious threat to our country's national security. The general policies issued by the Supreme Leader (may his shadow endure) in 1394, emphasizing the role of population in increasing national authority, confirm this matter. This writing, by utilizing a descriptive-analytical method and direct brainstorming through holding structured meetings and benefiting from the opinions of 15 experts in the two fields of demography and national security in the form of an expert panel, as well as reviewing the transition, policies, and demographic programs of the Islamic Republic of Iran with emphasis on the opinions of the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran, presents probable futures in the form of 5 scenarios and also provides suggestions. The result of the research indicates that by following the current trend in population policies, a disastrous future is the probable scenario ahead and will confront the country's national security with threats.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Security Foresight of Demographic Transition and Population Policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Presentation of Probable Scenarios 1 Javad Monzavi Bozorgi 2 Sadegh Ahmadi 3 Mohammad Vali Aliee Date of Receipt: 1397/6/6 Date of Acceptance: 1397/9/20 Abstract: Theorists in the field of geopolitics consider population as one of the key and power-generating components of every country.
This writing, by utilizing a descriptive-analytical method and direct brainstorming through organized meetings and leveraging the opinions of 15 experts in the two fields of demography and national security in the form of an expert panel, as well as reviewing the demographic transition, policies, and programs of the Islamic Republic of Iran with emphasis on the views of the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran, presents the probable futures in the form of 5 scenarios and also provides recommendations.
The reality is that a set of factors such as population control policies in the last two decades, changes in lifestyle and values and family living patterns, and also economic difficulties, have led to a sharp decrease in the population growth rate in the country, and all these factors are drawing an age pyramid for Iran for the next 30 years in which the elderly constitute an important part of it, and new policies must be formulated based on comprehensive principles.
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