چکیده:
The present article analyzes from a new perspective the theoretical possibility of how sovereign wealth funds can affect governance risk, which, in the presence of certain frictions, can impact the financial sector and consequently the real sector of the fund-creating country's economy. In a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (continuous time) analytical framework, it is shown how, under certain conditions, these funds can reduce governance risk and subsequently make it possible to influence the external financing costs of financial intermediaries and productive enterprises. More specifically, the findings of this article indicate that the existence of sovereign wealth funds, under certain conditions and depending on two different options regarding how their initial capital is (financially) provided, can lead to lower sensitivity to the probability of default or financial distress, or the restructuring of sovereign debt against adverse (internal or external) shocks to the economy. In particular, it is argued how the potential benefits and costs associated with the formation of these funds will depend on the relative size, type, and status of the sovereign's (surplus) fiscal capacity at the time of their creation. Additionally, the inherent externalities in creating the fund for sovereign default risk and the formation of a new channel for transmitting monetary and fiscal policies as a result of the establishment and activity of the fund are considered. In this regard, the impact of and susceptibility of these funds to monetary and fiscal policies at a macro level, consistent with the analytical framework used, has been examined.
خلاصه ماشینی:
More specifically, the findings of this article indicate that the existence of sovereign wealth funds, under certain conditions and considering two different options regarding the method of (financial) provision of their initial capital, can lead to lower sensitivity of the probability of default and/or financial squeeze and/or restructuring of sovereign debts against asymmetric shocks (internal and/or external) entering the economy.
From this viewpoint, today sovereign wealth funds, with various objectives including reducing dependency and focusing on the export of non-recycled goods, achieving higher returns compared to foreign exchange reserve accounts, assisting fiscal authorities in diversifying unwanted liquidity, increasing savings for future generations, investing for social and economic development, protecting and stabilizing the budget and economy against high fluctuations in revenues/exports, sustainable long-term capital growth for countries, and political strategies, can be the source of significant effects on the economies of owner countries as well as the foreign host countries of their capital.
In this context, the following facts have been motivating the adoption of such an approach in the present article regarding the analysis of the effects of these funds on the economy of the creating country; the first fact is that the investment of financial institutions, especially banks, in sovereign securities, particularly given the general perception of them as safe assets, causes their risk status to be susceptible to 1- Sovereign Wealth Funds 2- State-Contingent 3- Sovereign Risk any change in the market value of those securities occurs due to a change in the sovereign risk status (default).
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