چکیده:
The main objective of this research is to investigate the dynamics of income distribution and find evidence of convergence or divergence in the per capita income of the country's provinces using new developed methods for exploratory analysis of spatio-temporal data. To achieve this goal, per capita income data for the provinces for the period 1376 to 1393 was collected, and then the transition probability matrix at different time intervals was estimated using the Markov chain and spatial Markov chain methods. The results showed that in an 18-year period in the Iranian economy, there was a very low probability that deprived provinces (in terms of per capita income) could upgrade their per capita income. Also, the limiting distribution values showed that the tendency toward divergence in the per capita income of Iran's provinces during the period 1376 to 1379 was very weak, and given the probability values higher than 77 percent for staying at each per capita income level, it can also be claimed that there is no strong evidence of convergence or divergence in the per capita income distribution among Iran's provinces. Furthermore, the results of the spatial transition probability matrix estimation indicate the rejection of the spatial independence hypothesis and show that the transition from one relative per capita income level to another relative per capita income level for each province depends on the performance and status of neighboring provinces.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Dynamic Analysis of Per Capita Income Inequality in Iran's Provinces Using Spatio-Markov Chain Mohammadbagher Beheshti * , Parviz Mohammadzadeh ** and Azra Jamshidi *** Received Date: 2017/09/11 Accepted Date: 2018/11/18 Abstract The main objective of this research is to investigate the dynamics of income distribution and find evidence of convergence or divergence in the per capita income of the country's provinces using new advanced methods for the exploratory analysis of spatio-temporal data.
Additionally, the results of the spatial transition probability matrix estimation indicated the rejection of the spatial independence hypothesis and showed that the transition from one relative per capita income level to another relative per capita income level for each province depends on the performance and status of neighboring provinces.
Given the aforementioned cases, the present study aims to examine the transformations of regional inequality in Iran during the period from 1379 to 1393, taking into account the spatial (geographical) and temporal dimensions of provincial data and using new advanced methods for Exploratory Space-Time Data Analysis (ESTDA) 1.
4- Model Estimation and Analysis of Research Findings In order to examine the dynamics of inequality in the distribution of per capita income among the provinces of Iran using the Markov chain method, three types of data have been used; first, the necessary calculations for per capita income including oil were performed from 1376 to 1393, and then calculations for per capita income data excluding oil were performed for the period from 1379 to 1393.
(
, 
, 
)
