چکیده:
In the present study, the effects of fiscal policies on private sector consumption in developing countries during the period 1980-2014 have been examined. To this end, the research model has been estimated using the dynamic panel data method and GMM estimator for 50 selected countries. Additionally, to examine the robustness of the model and results, impulse response functions, Granger causality, and variance decomposition analysis in the form of a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model have been investigated. The results obtained from estimating the model using the GMM method indicate that the Keynesian short-term effects of fiscal policies on private sector consumption are confirmed. Furthermore, trade liberalization and per capita national income variables had a positive effect, and the inflation rate variable had a significant negative effect on household consumption expenditures. The results from the PVAR model estimation also showed that government expenditure and tax variables were among the most important explanatory factors for changes in private sector consumption in these countries, and they are considered to have Granger causality. Given the connection of the subject to the general policies of the country's sixth development plan and the policies of the resistance economy, the results of this study are important for the country's economic planners and policymakers.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The results from the PVAR model estimation also showed that government expenditure and tax variables were among the most important factors explaining changes in private consumption in these countries, and they are considered Granger causal variables.
Given the mentioned cases and the fact that consumption is one of the most important demand-side variables of the economy in calculating Gross Domestic Product, the present study examines the effect of fiscal policies on private consumption in developing countries during the period 1980-2014.
Schularick 1 (2007), in a study, has addressed the effect of fiscal policies on private sector consumption using panel data and a two-stage econometric model during the period 1970-2000 for 40 countries of the world (19 industrial countries and 21 developing countries).
Jaramillo and Chailloux (2015), in a study, have addressed the effect of income, fiscal policies, and wealth on private consumption using a panel model and quarterly data for 14 advanced economies during the period 1998-2012.
This study first addresses the model using the GMM estimator and then, with a new approach, for the first time in 50 developing countries, examines model stability, causality relationship, variance decomposition, and impulse response functions within the framework of the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model for middle-income and higher-income countries (including Iran).
Based on the results obtained from the model estimation, the most important policy recommendation of the study is that, given the confirmation of the Keynesian effects of fiscal policy in these countries, their economic planners can employ fiscal policy tools, especially government expenditure and taxation, to stimulate private sector consumption.
(
, 
, 
)
