چکیده:
The Iranian economy has been transitioning from centralized planning toward decentralized planning, and the issue of energy is one of the fundamental discussions in this transition period. The importance of this point becomes evident when we realize that revenues from the sale of various energy carriers constitute more than 90 percent of the national income, and on the other hand, huge amounts of the national budget are allocated annually under the title of subsidies for various energy carriers. Therefore, the discussion of removing energy subsidies possesses considerable sensitivity. In this study, the existence of structural breaks and the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran between the years 1362 and 1394 was investigated. The logarithm of average energy carrier prices, the logarithm of bank facilities, the logarithm of labor force, along with a dummy variable for structural break (for two break points in the years 1388 and 1392), were examined on the logarithm of economic growth in various dynamic, error correction, and long-term models. Based on the results, the estimation of the dynamic pattern using the ARDL method shows that the logarithm of average energy carrier prices in the current year, as well as with a lag, has a positive and significant impact on the country's economic growth; with an increase in energy carrier prices, economic growth increases. Additionally, the variables of logarithm of bank facilities, logarithm of labor force, and the structural break dummy variable also have a positive and significant impact on economic growth, and these relationships were confirmed in the long-term and error correction models.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The variables of the logarithm of the average price of energy carriers, the logarithm of bank facilities, the logarithm of labor force, along with a structural break dummy variable (for two break points in the years 1388 and 1392), were examined on the logarithm of economic growth in various dynamic, error correction, and long-term models.
Based on the results, the estimation of the dynamic pattern using the ARDL method shows that the logarithm of the average price of energy carriers in the current year and also with one lag has a positive and significant effect on the country's economic growth; with an increase in the price of energy carriers, economic growth increases.
Additionally, the variables of the logarithm of bank facilities, the logarithm of labor force, and the structural break dummy variable also have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, which was confirmed in the long-term and error correction models.
Taheri Fard and Rahmani (1997), using cointegration tests, Granger causality, and the error correction model, investigated the short-term and long-term relationships between gross domestic product, energy consumption, and capital stock during the period 1967-1994.
Their results showed that, considering structural breaks, a positive long-term relationship exists between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran.
Based on the results, the estimation of the dynamic pattern using the ARDL method shows that the logarithmic variable of the average price of energy carriers in the current year, as well as with one lag, has had a positive and significant effect on the country's economic growth.
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