چکیده:
While in recent decades problems such as high fertility rates and rapid population growth have plagued developing countries, the significant decline in fertility rates has been one of the most important demographic concerns for many developed countries. However, in recent years, low fertility levels have not remained limited to the issues and problems of developed societies; due to the sudden change in fertility trends and patterns from very high levels to low levels, even below replacement level, the resulting concern has gripped developing countries like Iran. The first alarm bells for Iran rang after the 1385 census and the announcement of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR = 1.8), and subsequently, the trend of declining TFR was confirmed by the results of the 1390 census, which estimated the TFR at 1.69. Although due to the age structure of Iran's population, annual population growth remains positive—calculated at 1.29 percent in the 1390 census—given the gradual decrease in the total fertility rate in Iran, its reduction to below the replacement level, and the continuous decline of the population in the future, there is a concern that if this level of fertility continues, Iran will experience negative population growth in the not-too-distant future (1420–1425 AH), resulting in facing an aged and elderly population. (Most Western capitalist countries and the European Union have faced this problem in the last five decades, and escaping it is not possible for them.) Since population (in terms of structure, composition, and distribution) is one of the components of national authority, power, and the strength of the internal structure of any country's system, and since creating changes and implementing population policies requires continuous change in a demographic generation that lasts at least three decades, neglecting it will have irreparable damages. On the other hand, considering the hegemony of the capitalist world system and the implementation of their population policies through international institutions and organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank—by providing financial assistance and population control services and committing countries to implement population control policies in exchange for receiving loans and holding five global seminars on reducing the population of developing countries—there is room to raise this fundamental question and concern: what role does the population (volume, structure, and composition) of each country play in its national authority that, despite the unprecedented economic and medical blockade by the hegemony against the Islamic Republic after the revolution, there is never an interruption in the programs of the population sector of the United Nations and the World Bank regarding population control policies and contraceptive supplies?! The traces of these concerns can be found in recent debates among demographers and national macro-policy makers, as well as in the speeches of the Supreme Leader regarding the necessity of changing population policies related to birth rates and family planning. This article aims to review the relationship between population and authority (political, economic, and national), examine demographic transformations and changes in Western developed countries, the challenges arising from sub-replacement fertility and the aging of the population in these societies and the resulting problems, and in response to the issue of sub-replacement fertility and the aging of the population age structure, provide a basis for a deeper study on the subject of changing population policies in accordance with the current population structure of Iran and, if possible, study and identify the factors influencing and facilitating this severe decline.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Total Fertility Rate attention to the hegemony of the capitalist world system and the implementation of their population policies through international institutions and organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank in providing financial assistance and population control services, and committing countries to implement population control policies in exchange for receiving loans and holding five international seminars on reducing the population of developing countries, raises this fundamental question and concern: what role does the population (size, structure, and composition) of each country play in a country's national authority, that despite the unprecedented economic and medical blockade imposed by the dominant system against the Islamic Republic after the revolution, there is never an interruption in the population sector programs of the United Nations and the World Bank regarding population control policies and pregnancy prevention tools?!
This article aims to examine, by reviewing the relationship between population and authority (political, economic, and national), the demographic transformations and changes in Western developed countries and the challenges arising from below-replacement fertility levels and the aging of the population in these societies and the resulting problems; and in response to the issue of below-replacement fertility and the aging of the age structure, to provide a basis for a deeper study on the subject of changing population policies suitable for the current population structure of Iran and, if possible, to study and identify the effective and facilitating factors of this sharp decline.
One of these specific conditions is the below-replacement fertility level 1 and consequently negative population growth, which is considered an undesirable matter and forces population policymakers to examine the causes and consequences of this issue and devise solutions to resolve it, or to prevent the decline in population growth in the long term in order to maintain the age structure of the population in the face of demographic changes in a region or country.
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