چکیده:
The Islamic Republic of Iran's perspective on international issues and its resistance against the hegemony system has always caused potential security threats in various fields. The focus of these threats in recent years has been concentrated on economic sectors, especially the financial and banking systems. Lack of proper and timely attention to these potential threats has caused the country's banking system and international financial transactions to become the Achilles' heel of the country's economy in the face of confrontation with the hegemony system. The greatest impact of international sanctions against the Islamic Republic has also manifested in this sector. Consequently, having a model for managing these risks seems necessary. Achieving an effective model first requires identifying the emerging risks and determining their level of importance. In this research, in the first step, using the Delphi method, the risks that have affected the banking system of the Islamic Republic as a result of international sanctions are identified, and using the Friedman test, their level of importance relative to each other is examined and prioritized. In the next step, using the views of experts and conducting interviews and content analysis, the solutions stated for managing the identified risks are presented in the form of a conceptual model. Finally, the proposed model is validated using the Delphi method, and the final model is presented based on the views of experts.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The following table shows the forty factors identified as risks to the banking system, which have been extracted from the Delphi process questionnaires: Table 2- Factors identified as risks to the banking system from the perspective of experts Row Description of the stated risk 1 Risk of receiving and transferring funds from exports, specifically oil sales 2 Risk of importing goods and services, especially essential goods to the country, due to difficulty in paying related funds 3 Risk of regulating the country's obligations by the Central Bank (meaning the efficient allocation of foreign exchange earnings to foreign exchange expenditures) 4 Blocking of bank assets in foreign accounts 5 Failure to provide electronic Core Banking needs due to imposed limitations 6 Severe pressure on the Central Bank and preventing it from performing its managerial role at the international level 7 Decrease in public trust in the announced policies of the Central Bank 8 Direction of the domestic foreign exchange market by the informal system 9 Creation of rent, as a result of multi-tiering of foreign exchange rates and the revival of the foreign exchange allocation system 10 Risk of maintaining the value of money by the Central Bank due to limitations in foreign exchange supply and increased foreign exchange market management costs 11 Difficulty in opening letters of credit and consequently the import of goods to the country as a result of the weakening of correspondent banking relationships 12 Prohibition of using communication services such as SWIFT and Reuters 13 Difficulty in foreign exchange remittances and transfers 14 Increase in risk in foreign exchange transfers due to the use of unsafe methods 15 Increase in foreign exchange transfer costs (for example, exchange bureau fees) 225 16 Disruption or reduction in the volume of activities of overseas branches 17 Increase in the economic and political risk of the country 18 Public dissatisfaction as a result of reduced banking services 19 Reduction in banking income due to decreased activities and consequently the bank's financial turnover, such as opening credits and remittances 20 Reduction in bank deposits due to people's sense of insecurity 21 Increase in bank costs as a result of the inflationary effects of sanctions 22 Reduction in money circulation and reduction in banking operations as a result of business downturn caused by sanctions 23 Limitation in accessing modern technologies and other goods required by the bank 24 Limitation in the export of goods and services due to limitations in opening foreign exchange letters of credit, fund transfers, etc.
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