Investigation of temperature change trends in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test مقاله

چکیده:

The time periods studied in this investigation are two periods of 56 and 17 years. The 56-year period relates to the Bandar Abbas station, covering from 1957 to 2012, and the 17-year period relates to the Qeshm station, covering from 1996 to 2012. First, an attempt was made to identify data changes using the Mann-Kendall rank method and then determine their type and timing. The aim of this research is to investigate the temperature change trends of the Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island stations to reveal potential deviations from the normal state using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The results obtained from this research are as follows: 1- The study of minimum temperature changes in the city of Bandar Abbas on a monthly scale indicates a severe decreasing trend at this station, where the intensity of this trend is highest in March with -45/., compared to other months; however, such uniformity does not exist in the maximum temperature element, and the trend of maximum temperature changes is a combination of a decreasing trend (TD) and a negative jump (AI). The investigation of minimum and maximum temperature change trends at the Qeshm station shows more heterogeneity compared to Bandar Abbas. The study of the minimum temperature element at the Qeshm station during the study period shows that 5 months of the year have no trend, and in the remaining months, a positive jump was the dominant type of change; in the maximum temperature element, an increasing jump is the dominant type of change in almost all months. 2- On an annual scale, both minimum and maximum temperature changes are of a decreasing trend type, but at the Qeshm station, minimum temperature changes were of a decreasing jump type and maximum temperature changes were of a positive jump type.