چکیده:
The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of petroleum product consumption on the growth of Iran's agricultural sector during the period 1350-1392. Short-term and long-term relationships were estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM), and finally, the causality relationship was calculated through the Granger causality test. The results show that in the long run, petroleum product consumption and foreign direct investment have been effective on the growth of the agricultural sector, such that the effect of petroleum product consumption on the growth of the agricultural sector is greater than the effect of foreign direct investment. Additionally, a two-way relationship between petroleum product consumption and agricultural sector growth does not exist. Therefore, it is suggested that the government help the growth of this sector regarding providing petroleum products and facilitating access to this type of energy for the agricultural sector.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Taheri and Rahmani (1999), using the cointegration technique and also the Granger causality test, examine the short-term and long-term relationships of Gross Domestic Product (at constant prices) variables, energy consumption, and capital stock for Iran during the period 1967-1994.
However, the results obtained from the estimation of the vector error correction model and the Granger causality test indicate the absence of a short-term causal relationship between energy consumption and capital stock with Gross Domestic Product.
To examine the relationship between the two variables of economic growth and energy consumption, the Granger causality test and cointegration were used in this study.
(2010), using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and an autoregressive distributed lag model, addressed the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth and estimated their long-term coefficients within the framework of the demand-side model during the period 1971 to 2003 for Malaysia.
Table No. 4- Results of estimating the long-term equation using the ARDL method (Refer to page image) Source: Researcher's calculations Subsequently, in order to examine the stability of the model coefficients, the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) test has been used.
Table No. 5- Results of the Granger causality test (Refer to page image) Source: Researcher's calculations Based on the results obtained from the initial ADRL model, per capita petroleum product consumption in the agricultural sector, per capita foreign direct investment, and economic shocks in the short term on production per capita gross domestic product of the agricultural sector have been effective.
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