چکیده:
In an open economy, the exchange rate is considered a key variable due to its interconnection with other economic variables; therefore, it has attracted the attention of many economic policymakers and has become the focus of empirical studies. In this study, the factors affecting the exchange rate in Iran were examined using time series data for the period 1391-1393 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results show that in the long run, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a negative impact, while liquidity volume and imports have a positive and significant impact on the exchange rate. The impact of interest rate and export variables on the exchange rate was not statistically significant. Additionally, the impact of shocks on the exchange rate was positive and significant. Given that the elasticity of liquidity in the long run is greater than its elasticity in the short run, by targeting contractionary monetary policy in the long run, the desired goal of reducing the exchange rate can be achieved. Therefore, appropriate policies and executive tools must be designed and implemented by the government.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Using the Johansen and Juselius approach, they examined the long-term relationship between the real exchange rate and fundamental economic factors, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, terms of trade, and social propensity to consume, and then obtained the cointegration vector between these variables and the real exchange rate.
Taghavi and Mohammadi (1330), in an article titled "Investigating the factors affecting the exchange rate and balance of payments in the Iranian economy (a monetary approach)", in this study, in order to examine the validity of the hypothesis regarding the mutual effect of macroeconomic variables on the external sector as well as the effect of monetary and exchange rate policies on the external sector, considering that official and unofficial exchange rates have existed with significant differences in our country over a long period, and also considering the mutual effect of the official and unofficial foreign exchange markets on each other, used a model suitable for dual exchange rate systems and tested the hypothesis of the monetary nature of the exchange rate and balance of payments simultaneously using a simultaneous equation system.
Table (2): Short-term estimation results (Refer to page image) Source: Researcher's findings According to the results obtained from the model estimation in Table 2, in the short term, the variables of Gross Domestic Product, liquidity volume, exports along with one time lag, imports, and a dummy variable have had a statistically significant effect on the exchange rate.
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