چکیده:
Improving the trade balance is one of the major economic goals of countries. Monetary policies are among the factors affecting the trade balance. In this article, the impact of monetary policies on the trade balance in oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf region has been investigated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) during the period 1995-2010. The results indicate that the growth of money and quasi-money has a significant negative effect on net exports and consequently on the trade balance of oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf region. However, the exchange rate does not have a significant impact on the trade balance. Therefore, controlling liquidity growth and ensuring appropriate alignment with the impact of the exchange rate through monetary policies can have a clear effectiveness in improving the trend of the trade balance, because the prominent role of automatic adjustment mechanisms compared to interventionist adjustment mechanisms is undeniable. Therefore, the efficiency of monetary policies in alignment with exchange rate policies should be evaluated, and in line with macro-economic policies, trade relations based on the method of coverage and reaction to fluctuations, and the level of the trade balance should be organized to promote long-term economic development goals in the arena of international competitiveness.
خلاصه ماشینی:
For this reason, the efficiency of monetary policies in alignment with exchange rate policies should be evaluated, and in line with macroeconomic policies, trade relations should be organized based on the method of coverage and reaction to fluctuations, and the level of the trade balance for advancing long-term economic development goals in the arena of international competitiveness.
The role of monetary and exchange rate policies in providing an efficient tool for expanding codified policymaking to achieve long-term economic development goals in oil-rich countries is completely clear; in this regard, determining the optimal exchange rate and implementing appropriate exchange rate policies is of special importance because the reduction of economic efficiency, suboptimal distribution and allocation of economic resources, disruption in domestic financial markets, and the destruction of the balance of payments are real effects of improper exchange rate regulation.
Yousefi and Wirjanto 4 (2003), using the cointegration method and data from the period 1970-1998, investigated the effects of changes in the US dollar exchange rate on the trade balance of oil-exporting countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela).
Bhattarai and Armah 7 (2005), using time series data for the period 1970-2000 and single-equation models, vector error correction models, and cointegration analyses, confirm a stable relationship between exports, imports, and the exchange rate in the long run, and the results indicate that by calculating the export and import elasticities, the Marshall-Lerner condition holds in the long run.
Jalali Naeini and Khiabani (1997), in order to investigate the effects of fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies on macroeconomic variables and the trade balance (exports and imports of goods), have addressed the estimation of Iran's macro-econometric model for the period 1964-1994 (1343-1373) consisting of 10 equations and 16 unions, using three-stage regression methods.
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