چکیده:
After the Islamic Revolution, especially after the years of the imposed war, the necessity of economic planning has received more attention than ever before. In this regard, awareness of business cycles, which indicate the trend of national production, appears very important. Studies conducted on business cycles have mainly focused on two main axes: one is identifying the factors affecting the emergence of recession and boom periods in the economy, and the other is analyzing statistical indicators in relation to business cycles, such as amplitude, intensity, and duration of the period. In this article, the business cycles of the Iranian economy during the period 1368-1389 have been analyzed and examined from both aspects using seasonal and annual data. To this end, using the HP statistical filter, four business cycles have been identified within the investigated time interval, with the fifth cycle being in its initial stage. The average length of boom and recession periods is almost equal, but the amplitude and intensity of boom periods have been greater than the recession periods. The estimation of the VAR model using the most important leading variables affecting real Gross Domestic Product shows that oil revenues and total government expenditures have been able to have the greatest impact on business cycle fluctuations.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Studies conducted on business cycles have mainly focused on two main axes: one is identifying the factors affecting the emergence of recession and boom periods in the economy, and the other is analyzing statistical indicators in relation to business cycles, such as amplitude, intensity, and duration.
Estimating the VAR model using the most significant leading variables affecting real Gross Domestic Product shows that oil revenues and total government expenditures have had the greatest impact on business cycle fluctuations.
Figure (1): Business cycles of the Iranian economy (1989-2010) based on the HP filter (refer to page image) Source: Research calculations 3- For more information on the values of λ based on the annual average period for annual, quarterly, and monthly data, see Maravall and Del Rio, 2001, p.
Since the results of the vector autoregression model estimation are not interpretable 1- Cointegration are not, in order to identify the most important causes of business cycles in the Iranian economy during the period under study, variance decomposition of Gross Domestic Product has been used over a period of 20 periods (quarters).
Table (6): Variance decomposition of GDP (Refer to page image) (Refer to page image) Source: Research calculations The general conclusion from the model constructed for the Iranian economy indicates the fact that oil revenues have been able to have the most significant effects on Gross Domestic Product and, consequently, business cycles during the period under study.
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