چکیده:
Identifying and explaining the connection between unemployment and inflation in rural areas can significantly assist economic decision-making regarding these regions. This article is an effort to identify the precise relationships between the aforementioned phenomena in the short and long term. Therefore, the aim of the article is to examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in rural areas of Iran from the perspective of the Neoclassical Phillips Curve and to investigate the factors affecting these two variables for the period 1365-1392. To this end, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and structural methods based on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique have been used. In this research, to determine the unobservable values of the expected rural inflation rate, the natural rate of rural unemployment, and potential rural output, the Hodrick-Prescott filter method was used. The results show that both in the short term and the long term, the Neoclassical Phillips Curve in rural areas of Iran is statistically significant, meaning the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation in rural areas will be an inverse relationship. Under such conditions, the Central Bank and the government can have a significant impact on the unemployment rate in rural areas by implementing targeted monetary and fiscal policies.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Therefore, the aim of the article is to investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment in rural areas of Iran from the perspective of the New Classical Phillips Curve and to examine the factors affecting these two variables for the period 1986-2013.
The results show that both in the short run and the long run, the New Classical Phillips Curve in the rural areas of Iran is statistically significant, meaning the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation in rural areas will be an inverse relationship.
The results of this study indicate that in the aforementioned periods, a long-term trade-off relationship exists between inflation, based on the percentage of CPI changes, and the unemployment rate using Vector Error Correction Model estimation.
Gorji and Fouladi (1387), in a study, estimated the new Keynesian Phillips curves for the Iranian economy, and the results obtained show a trade-off between inflation and unemployment in both the short run and the long run, but this relationship is weaker in the long run than in the short run.
Table 4- Results related to the estimation of short-term coefficients of the new classical Phillips curve in rural areas (refer to the page image) After estimating the dynamic equation and before examining the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables present in the pattern, a test for the existence of long-term cointegration among the existing variables has been conducted.
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