چکیده:
Developing non-oil exports is considered the most important strategy toward liberating the country's economy from dependence on oil exports. In this regard, attention to the category of international marketing, which is influenced by market-level variables and macroeconomic variables, is necessary. In developing countries such as Iran that are in transition conditions, the importance of macroeconomic variables in international markets is significantly greater than market-level variables. Therefore, in this study, the role of macroeconomic variables on Iran's non-oil exports to the Turkish market has been examined based on the ARDL method during the period 1980-2012. The results of the study showed that in the short term, real effective exchange rate variables initially have a negative impact and with a one-year lag have a positive impact on Iran's non-oil exports to Turkey. Also, the higher growth of general price levels in Turkey compared to Iran and Turkey's per capita income have a positive effect on Iran's non-oil exports in the short term, but Turkey's trade openness, due to the low competitiveness of Iranian export goods, has a negative effect on Iran's non-oil exports to Turkey. However, in the long term, only Turkey's per capita income and its trade openness have a significant impact on Iran's non-oil exports to it.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The results of the study showed that in the short term, the real effective exchange rate variables initially have a negative effect and with a one-year lag have a positive effect on Iran's non-oil exports to Turkey.
The problems arising from a mono-product economy and excessive reliance on oil revenues over many years have led the attention of experts, researchers, and economic planners of the country toward the policy of replacing non-oil exports to secure the country's required foreign exchange and providing necessary solutions for its development, and in the socio-economic development programs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, great emphasis and importance should also be placed on this issue.
Based on this, the present study places the role of macroeconomic factors in international marketing as its main focus and, in this regard, as a case study, examines the role of the aforementioned factors in Iran's non-oil exports to Turkey during the period 1980-2012, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) 1 method.
In this study, non-oil exports are considered a function of real exchange rate variables, total factor productivity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the degree of economic openness, and the ARDL method was used to estimate the model and examine the effect of changes in each of these factors on non-oil exports during the years 1974-2007.
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