چکیده:
The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on energy consumption in Iran during the period 1391-1393. To this end, three indicators—the number of internet users, the number of mobile phone lines, and the number of fixed telephone lines—were used as ICT measurement variables. Additionally, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and the Bounds Test, short-term and long-term relationships between the model variables were estimated and analyzed. The results show that the expansion of ICT, measured by all three indicators, increases per capita energy consumption in both the short and long term. The Error Correction Model (ECM) coefficient indicates that after approximately 2 periods, the imbalance in all models is adjusted and moves toward its long-term trend. The CUSUM and CUSUMQ structural stability tests also indicate that the estimated coefficients are stable throughout the study period.
خلاصه ماشینی:
To this end, using the Bound Cointegration Test 1 and the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag 4 (ARDL) method, the effect of various ICT indicators, namely: the number of internet users, the number of mobile and fixed telephone lines, on energy consumption in Iran during the period 1991-2013 is measured.
The results of this study, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, indicate a negative and significant effect of investment in ICT on energy consumption in this country in both the short and long term.
Number of fixed telephone lines per 100 people in Iran during the years 2013-(Refer to page image) Source: Research calculations using WDI data 4- Research Model and Method 4-3- Introduction of Model and Data In the present article, in order to examine the effect of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on Energy Consumption (EC) in Iran, the model from Ishida's article (2014: 4) and Sadorsky (2012: 312), which is an energy demand-side model as follows, has been utilized: (Refer to page image) In the above relationship, the variables are defined as follows: nect : Natural logarithm of per capita energy consumption (in kg of oil equivalent) as an indicator for measuring energy consumption.
Based on the critical values and the F-statistic calculated in the upper part of the upper section of Table (2), the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the model variables, in which each of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) indices is used in the model, is confirmed at the 2 percent level; because the value of the F-statistic calculated in these models is greater than the upper limit of the critical values provided by Pesaran et al.
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