چکیده:
Tourism is recognized as the world's largest service industry in terms of revenue generation, such that its growth has brought about many social and economic changes. The development of the tourism industry is of great importance for developing countries that face problems such as high unemployment rates, limited foreign exchange resources, and mono-product economies. The aim of this study is to investigate the hypothesis that tourism leads to growth in Iran during the period 1347-1388. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine and analyze the relationship between revenues derived from the tourism industry and non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using the Johansen-Johansen cointegration method. Additionally, efforts have been made to determine the type of causal relationship between income from international tourism and GDP using the Granger causality test based on short-term and long-term models. The results of the Johansen cointegration test show that a long-term cointegrating relationship exists between the aforementioned variables, and the coefficient of the tourism income variable is positive. Furthermore, causality tests indicate that a long-term Granger causality relationship exists from tourism revenues to the growth of non-oil GDP. Therefore, it can be argued that the development of the tourism industry can serve as a driver for Gross Domestic Product as well as the country's economic growth.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Keywords: Tourism industry, Gross Domestic Product, Cointegration, Causal relationship, Iran JEL Classification: Z000, F100, C220 1Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis * Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Tabriz E-mail: Rranjpour@yahoo.
This article, with the aim of answering the question: "Can strengthening the tourism sector in the Iranian economy have an impact on the growth of Gross Domestic Product?", [examines] the relationship between the tourism industry and 1 UNWTO(United Nations World Tourism Organization) Gross Domestic Product in Iran through the "Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis1" channel, using methods related to time series data and causality tests, has been studied and examined.
The results of this study indicate the existence of a stable long-term relationship between Gross Domestic Product and tourism, as well as a causal relationship from tourism towards economic growth.
Based on the obtained estimate, the long-term relationship between the model variables can be expressed as equation (1): (Refer to the page image) According to the results, it can be stated that the real exchange rate has had a negative and significant effect on the Gross Domestic Product, while the income derived from tourists entering the country has had a positive and significant effect on the Gross Domestic Product of Iran.
1 2 According to these tables, in the short term, there is no statistically significant causal relationship between economic growth (changes in non-oil Gross Domestic Product) and tourism incomes in the country.
The results obtained from estimating the original model using the Johansen-Johansen cointegration method indicate that a positive relationship exists between income from the tourism industry and Gross Domestic Product.
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