چکیده:
Predicting oil prices and examining oil shocks for oil-exporting countries and oil-producing companies is of great importance. Therefore, predicting the trend of oil prices and the possibility of oil shocks can be useful for OPEC policymakers, non-OPEC exporters, and even oil consumers. In this article, based on studies conducted for other types of crises and using the crisis probability estimation method, an early warning system for oil crises is presented that is capable of warning about oil crises in advance. This system has been simulated for the occurrence of oil crises during the period 1970-2009. The simulation results provide appropriate signs before the occurrence of a crisis. This system can be used to predict other types of crises, such as financial or monetary crises.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Variables Related to the Early Warning System Model In general, the variables related to the early warning system model are introduced in the form of an oil price equation as follows: OPEC crude oil production 3, world crude oil production, 4 GDP of OPEC member countries, OPEC and world crude oil export supply, OPEC crude oil exploitation capacity 5, OPEC oil exports, OPEC quota violation 6, global financial crisis.
As can be observed, given the signs of the estimated coefficients in Table (3), the marginal effects of an increase in all variables, with the exception of global crude oil export supply, on the probability of a crisis are positive.
Table 5: Simulated crisis results for the period (1978-1981) (Refer to the page image) Source: Research findings The second oil shock occurred in 1980, where the model here issued its warning two years before the crisis.
Table 6: Simulated crisis results for the period (1984-1985) (Refer to the page image) Source: Research findings The third oil shock occurred in 1986 and, unlike the first and second oil shocks, oil prices began to decrease.
Table 7: Simulated crisis results for the period (1988-1990) (Refer to the page image) Source: Research findings The fourth oil shock in 1990, for which the model has accurately issued a warning.
In the year 2001 Given the decrease in US economic growth and the increase in production by non-OPEC countries, downward pressure on oil prices emerged.
(
, 
, 
)
