چکیده:
NAIRU refers to the non-accelerating inflation unemployment rate. This phenomenon refers to two major economic dilemmas that are continuously under the attention of economic policymakers. The first part of the article addresses whether NAIRU can be used for monetary policy and changes in total output and economic fluctuations. In the second part of this article, an attempt is made to explain why NAIRU increases over time. Another goal of the article is to examine the impact of contractionary monetary policies in the Iranian economy considering the natural non-accelerating inflation unemployment rate. The results from the Johansen-Glaucus test and the cointegration test indicate the absence of a long-term relationship between inflation and unemployment in the Iranian economy. Additionally, due to the change in NAIRU over time, the NAIRU time series between the years 1340 and 1389 was estimated and extracted using the Kalman Filter and HP Filter approaches. The average NAIRU rate in the period under consideration was estimated at 12.13 percent. In order to understand the position of the Iranian economy and provide policy solutions, comparing the estimated NAIRU time series with the annual unemployment rate shows that in the period 1385 to 1389, NAIRU is greater than the actual unemployment rate. Therefore, in these conditions, implementing contractionary policy to further reduce the unemployment rate in the long run will lead to accelerating inflation without playing any role in reducing unemployment. Thus, given the extracted natural non-accelerating inflation unemployment rate, it can be stated that implementing monetary policy to reduce unemployment has had no effect on reducing or increasing inflation, and where NAIRU is higher than the actual unemployment rate, implementing monetary policy to reduce unemployment has been ineffective and leads to an increase in the inflation rate. Therefore, it seems that in order to reach a stable inflation rate in the long run, controlling the money supply and employing a monetary rule can guide unemployment to its long-term NAIRU position.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Estimation of NAIRU for the Iranian economy using Kalman Filter and Hodrick- Prescott approach ∗ Hossein Abbasi Nejad ∗∗ Yazdan Goudarzi Farahani Abstract: NAIRU is the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.
In the second section of this article, the role of NAIRU in the economy is addressed; the third section discusses the research background regarding NAIRU in the economy; the fourth section uses the Kalman filter approach for data filtering to be compared with the Hodrick-Prescott method; the fifth section deals with the examination of the unemployment-inflation trade-off in the Iranian economy; in the next section, we examine the model, and finally, we present the results and policy recommendations.
(2)- Model estimated using the Kalman filter method (refer to the page image) Source: Results obtained from the research 1 - consumer price index 2 - consumption deflator 3 - Richardson, Pete, Laurence Boone, Claude Giorno, Mara Meacci, David Rae and David Turner (2000).
5- The trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the Iranian economy (1340-1389) Since the Phillips curve shows a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short term, and the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis was proposed at a time when these two variables were increasing together, therefore in this research, before estimating NAIRU, we examine the trend of changes in these two variables and the relationship between them in the Iranian economy during the years 1340-1389.
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