چکیده:
For an economy that is highly dependent on oil revenue and the foreign exchange earned from it, oil developments can be considered one of the important factors affecting various sectors of the economy, including the stock market. On the other hand, oil price shocks are among the causes of inflation, and since one of the goals of the Central Bank is to implement monetary policy with the aim of targeting inflation, and monetary policy tools, in addition to their indirect effects on target variables, also have direct and primary effects on financial markets such as the stock market. Therefore, understanding how monetary policy affects a wider area of the economy necessarily requires awareness of the effect of these policy measures on the stock market and how asset returns and prices change in this market. Thus, this study examines the effect of the monetary policy channel in transmitting oil price shocks to the Iranian stock market in the time period 1378:1 - 1387:12. For this purpose, mixed methods and the abstraction method were used. The results show that during the period under study, monetary policy played no role in transmitting oil shocks to the stock market; rather, the effects of oil shocks on the stock market occur even when the Central Bank does not react to the oil shock. Therefore, the mechanism of transmitting monetary policy through oil shocks to the stock market in Iran is not confirmed.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Monetary Policy and the Transmission Mechanism of Oil Price Shocks to the Stock Market in Iran * Mohsen Ebrahimi ** Nooshin Shokri Abstract: For an economy that is highly dependent on oil revenue and the foreign exchange earned from it, oil developments can be considered one of the important factors affecting various sectors of the economy, including the stock market.
Thus, this study examines the effect of the monetary policy channel in transmitting oil price shocks to the 1 stock market in Iran in the time period 1378:12 - 1387:12.
The current study attempts to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the stock market using time series data, and it is also an effort towards incorporating the monetary policy of the central bank aimed at inflation targeting, which is created as a result of the oil shock.
Therefore, in the following, using the SVEC model and impulse response functions, we will examine the effect of the monetary policy channel in transmitting the price shock of oil to the stock market using both the mixed method and the abstraction method.
Table 4: Forecast error variance decomposition of the stock price index (refer to page image) Source: Research results 5-8- Examining the effect of the monetary policy channel in transmitting the oil price shock to the stock market As mentioned in the previous sections, both in the case of an increase in oil prices and in conditions of its decrease, the government's fiscal policy may lead to an increase in the money supply and subsequently an increase in inflation.
(
, 
, 
)
