چکیده:
The evolutionary path of ideas in business cycles, from emphasizing the self-repeating behavior of business cycles toward ideas where random shocks hold a central position, has made significant progress in macroeconomics. This gradual evolution is also very important for policymaking economic institutions. Given the importance of business cycles, this research seeks to find the cause of production shocks and whether technology shocks are the cause of production shocks; to answer this question, the Hasayao causality method was used with data from 2011-2014, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter method was used to calculate technology shocks. The results indicate a bidirectional relationship between technology shocks and production shocks for Iran. What demonstrates the necessity of this research is the need for countries to properly plan economic policies in response to and dealing with business cycles. Understanding the causal relationship between macroeconomic variables and business cycles can be effective in policymaking.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Based on the studies conducted by Hadian and Hashempour (2013), the results obtained from extracting the long-term trend components of business cycles and irregular shocks of Iran's real Gross Domestic Product, as well as the identification and diagnosis of the causes of business cycles using the ARIMA model during the years 1391-1394, showed the growth rate of the long-term trend of Gross Domestic Product at the beginning of inflation, the start of the imposed war, and the final years of the war was negative; it also shows that the high sensitivity of investment and exports were considered important evidence for creating business cycles.
Nelson and Plosser's research on economic time series led them to conclude that macroeconomic models that emphasize monetary shocks as the source of temporary fluctuations can never explain a major part of output changes and random changes arising from real factors (which is the main element of fluctuations in any macroeconomy), explain (Snowden and Win, 2013).
Table 3: Reference Calendar of Economic Business Cycles in Iran (Refer to the page image) Source: Based on annual statistics 1999 time series (1993-2011) 1-3- Efficiency of Business Cycles Most economic fluctuations in industrialized countries are equilibrium consequences arising from the economy's response to exogenous changes in real factors (including technology) in an environment characterized by perfect competition and frictionless markets.
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