چکیده:
Inflation, unemployment, production recession, budget deficit, and exchange rate fluctuations are among the factors that governments always attempt to control in order to achieve the triple goals of allocation, distribution, and economic stability. In macroeconomic literature, the aforementioned phenomena are considered indicators of economic instability that affect economic growth and development. This article examines the effect of the above indicators on Human Development (HDI)—which is a combination of standard of living (GDP), longevity (life expectancy), and knowledge—through the Geographically Weighted Regression approach as a sub-branch of spatial econometrics in selected Asian countries in 2005. The results indicate that due to the spatial nature of the data, spatial econometrics has superiority over general econometrics, and the Geographically Weighted Regression technique as a sub-branch of spatial econometrics is superior to the GLOBAL method. Additionally, spatial heterogeneity for the exchange rate and budget deficit variables was confirmed, but spatial dependence for the human development variable was not confirmed.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The Impact of Economic Instability on Human Development in Selected Asian Countries * Majid Sameti ** Marjan Behnood Abstract: Inflation, unemployment, production recession, budget deficit, and exchange rate fluctuations are among the factors that governments always attempt to control in order to achieve the triple goals of economic allocation, distribution, and stability.
This article examines the effect of the above indicators on Human Development Index (HDI), which is a combination of standard of living (GDP), longevity (life expectancy), and knowledge, through the Geographically Weighted Regression approach as a sub-branch of spatial econometrics in selected Asian countries in 2005.
In this research, based on a proposed regression equation for Iran in the period 1342-1377, four indicators were used to specify a stable macroeconomic environment, which are: the ratio of budget deficit to gross domestic product, inflation rate, percentage change in the real exchange rate, and the standard deviation of the growth of the terms of trade.
4- Model Presentation Now, given the theoretical foundations stated regarding spatial econometrics and the GWR model as one of its sub-branches, the model used in this research is specified as follows: (Refer to page image) Model variables: HDI: Indicator of the Human Development Index of Asian countries EXCH: Indicates the exchange rate as an indicator of economic instability INFi: Indicates the inflation rate as an indicator of economic instability UNEMPi: Indicates the unemployment rate as an indicator of economic instability BDi: Indicates the budget deficit as an indicator of economic instability 5- Analysis of Estimation Results The following results have been obtained for the selected Asian countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, China, India, Iran, Israel, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam, Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates.
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