چکیده:
In this article, we seek to test the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on total output using cointegration analysis and the error correction model using Iranian economic data for the period 1971 to 2010. In this research, we will consider two types of asymmetric effects, which include: 1) Whether positive and negative monetary shocks have different effects on output. 2) Whether large or small monetary shocks have different effects. The results regarding the asymmetry of positive and negative shocks indicate that negative shocks have significantly greater effects on reducing economic growth compared to positive shocks. Furthermore, in all specifications, positive monetary shocks have had a negative effect on output growth after a period, such that a large part of the effect of positive shocks is neutralized in the following period. Monetary imbalances also have asymmetric effects on economic growth, such that the coefficient of excess money supply is not significant in any specification, while a shortage of money supply relative to its equilibrium amount has significant effects on (reducing) economic growth. The results show that although policymakers can increase economic growth to some extent by an unexpected increase in the growth of money supply volume, they must pay a much higher cost in terms of reduced economic growth when reducing the growth of money supply and inflation.
خلاصه ماشینی:
* Hossein Abbasi Nejad ** Yazdane Goudarzi Farahani *** Shiva Moshtari Doust Abstract In this article, we seek to test the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on total output using cointegration analysis and the error correction model with Iranian economic data for the period 1350 to 1389.
The distinguishing feature of this study from other studies conducted is that wavelet analysis has been used to extract monetary policy shocks, and based on this, asymmetric positive and negative, small and large monetary shocks are tested, whereas in previous studies, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, which has a one-sided aspect, has been used, and all test cases for the hypothesis based on the asymmetric effects of shocks have not been investigated (Morton Rawon and Martin Sola, 2005).
. Expected Money In this research, which consists of five sections, we first present the theoretical foundations of the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks, then in the third section, we will review the empirical studies conducted in this field, and subsequently, in the fourth section, we will introduce the empirical model used to evaluate the impact of positive and negative monetary shocks, and finally, we will evaluate the obtained results.
The results of this test, which was conducted based on the maximum likelihood method, indicated that negative monetary shocks have significant effects on the real output of this country, while positive shocks disappear in the subsequent period.
To investigate and test the asymmetric effects of monetary fluctuations on real production, monetary changes or the real balance are decomposed into two positive and negative shocks using the Hodrick-Prescott decomposition method and are included as two explanatory variables in the growth model.
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