چکیده:
Oil, as a primary raw material for providing energy in the world, is of significant importance; therefore, examining the role and effect of oil price fluctuations on macro-economic variables is necessary and essential. The dependence of advanced industrial countries on this substance and the susceptibility of these countries' economies to oil price fluctuations reveals the importance of these developments. In this article, the effect of OPEC oil price fluctuations on the inflation of selected OECD oil-importing countries, including Canada, USA, Japan, France, and England, during the years 1970 to 2011 is examined on a quarterly basis, and for this purpose, the model has been estimated using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results obtained regarding different countries show that the effect of increasing OPEC oil prices (of which Iran is one of the effective members) on the inflation of oil-importing countries has not been uniform. In all the studied countries, oil price increases and inflation have had a positive relationship with each other; however, the effects of increasing oil prices on the inflation of these countries have decreased over time; and regarding the decrease in oil prices, significant effects are not observed except in a few countries; in other words, oil price fluctuations have an asymmetric effect on inflation.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Explanation and analysis of the impact of OPEC oil price fluctuations on the inflation of selected OECD oil importing countries Ramin Pashaeefam 1, Mohammadreza Pazooki 2, Patris Amirkhani 3 Date received: 2013/03/17 Date accepted: 2013/05/19 Abstract Oil, as the primary raw material for energy supply in the world, is of great importance; therefore, studying the role and effect of oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic variables is necessary and essential.
In this article, the effect of OPEC oil price fluctuations on the inflation of selected OECD oil importing countries, including Canada, USA, Japan, France, and England, during the years 1970 to 2011 is investigated on a quarterly basis.
Therefore, considering the relationship between oil prices and the economic growth of oil-importing countries, it was expected that the economic situation of these countries would improve and this price decrease would cause an increase in the growth rate of production; however, in any case, except for a few weak signs of a positive effect on the GDP of some OECD countries, no other effect was observed.
Raguindin and Reyes 2 (2005), using a vector autoregression model and utilizing the linear and non-linear characteristics of oil prices, examined key macroeconomic variables (Gross Domestic Product, real effective exchange rate, consumer price index, real wage rate, and money supply) and showed that positive oil price shocks led to a long-term decrease in real GDP in the Philippines.
4- Model Introduction In this article, the existence of a long-term relationship between the increase and decrease of OPEC oil prices and inflation in selected oil-importing countries has been examined.
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