چکیده:
The role of savings in determining investment and economic growth is one of the topics that has always been considered in the formulation of economic policies and theories. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between savings and economic growth in Iran during the period 1340-1387. In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate, analyze, and decompose the relationship between savings and economic growth using the Johansen-Johansen cointegration method. Additionally, efforts have been made to determine the type of causal relationship between savings and economic growth using the causality test based on the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of the Johansen-Johansen cointegration test show that a positive long-term cointegration relationship exists between the mentioned variables. Furthermore, based on causality tests, no type of long-term Granger causality relationship was proven between the variables, but in the short term, a Granger causality relationship from economic growth to savings in Iran is proven. This may indicate that in Iran, the necessary resources for economic growth are provided through sources other than savings (such as oil revenues).
خلاصه ماشینی:
The value of the optimally selected vector coefficients in this study and their related statistics are as described in equation (3): (Refer to page image) According to the results obtained during the studied time period, the variables of the logarithm of gross domestic savings and the logarithm of oil revenues have had a positive and significant effect on gross domestic product.
5-5- Interpretation of Results Given the model used, the results obtained from the model estimation and the tests performed show that in the long term, there is a cointegrating vector between the variables of the logarithm of gross domestic product, the logarithm of gross domestic savings, and the logarithm of oil revenues, in which the coefficient of the logarithm of gross domestic savings variable is a positive number and statistically significant, indicating a significant positive effect of gross domestic savings on economic growth during the period 1340-1386.
Based on the estimates made and with the aim of examining the causal relationship between the original variables of the research, the results of the short-term and long-term causality tests based on the vector error correction model lead to the conclusion that in the short term, there is a causal relationship from economic growth towards domestic savings in Iran, but in the long term, no causal relationship between economic growth and domestic savings is proven.
In this research, the results obtained from the performed estimates and tests indicate a positive and significant effect of gross domestic savings on economic growth during the period 1340-1386.
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