چکیده:
In economic literature, particularly international economics, the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, abbreviated as the F-H puzzle, holds special importance. According to the F-H puzzle, in countries with high (low) international capital mobility, a strong (weak) positive correlation exists between the investment rate and the domestic savings rate. The aim of this research is to examine and compare this puzzle for the MENA region countries and the G7 group. To achieve this objective, panel cointegration analyses and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators were used over the period (1990-2014). The findings of this research indicate a lack of cointegration between domestic savings and investment rates in the G7 countries, and consequently, high capital mobility in these countries (failure to confirm the F-H puzzle). This is while the domestic savings rate coefficient for MENA region countries, using FMOLS, DOLS, and PMG estimators, was obtained as 0.42, 0.08, and 0.38 respectively, which means imperfect capital mobility in these countries. Furthermore, by dividing the MENA region countries into two categories, oil-producing and non-oil-producing, it was shown that the impact of the domestic savings rate on domestic investment in oil-producing countries is greater than in non-oil-producing countries; this indicates lower capital mobility in the oil-producing countries of the MENA region compared to its non-oil-producing countries.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Keywords: MENA region countries, capital mobility, Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, panel cointegration, Pooled Mean Group estimation (PMG).
Using panel cointegration estimators: Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), the findings of this research indicate that international capital mobility in these countries is at a lower level compared to OECD countries; this result confirms the F-H puzzle.
The findings of this research, in the form of panel cointegration analyses and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation method, indicate low capital mobility in 1- Jain and Sami 2- Bangake and Eggoh 3- Adebola and Dahalan the large and wealthy countries of this region compared to other countries; this result confirms the F-H puzzle among the countries of this region.
1- Research Model and Method 1-3- Research Model In this study, in order to measure the intensity of capital mobility and investigate the F-H puzzle in the countries of the MENA region and the Group of Seven, and to conduct a comparative analysis of both, the following empirical model has been used: (Refer to the page image) This model was first used by Feldstein and Horioka (1980) and has been used in numerous studies regarding the research topic, such as the studies of Nasiru and Usman (2013), Bangak and Ago (2019), and Kennessey (2020).
In summarizing the results obtained from estimating the research model using various econometric methods, it can be said that the F-H puzzle, meaning a strong (weak) correlation between savings rates and domestic investment in countries with high (low) capital mobility, is rejected in the Group of Seven countries (MENA region).
(
, 
, 
)
