چکیده:
The main objective of this article is to investigate the effect of economic sanctions on Iran's bilateral trade with 30 trading partners during the period 1352-1386. To this end, the augmented gravity model was estimated using panel data methods in two cases, with and without considering sanctions. The results of the estimation indicate that sanctions have a negative but small effect on Iran's trade and its trading partners, such that if sanctions are imposed by Iran's trading partners, its bilateral trade with those partners will decrease by only 0.089 percent. Therefore, the negative effect of economic sanctions on Iran's trade with its trading partners is negligible.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The structure of the article is such that after the introduction, in the second section, the theoretical foundations of the effect of economic sanctions on bilateral trade are presented, and in the third section, empirical studies related to the subject under discussion are provided, and then, the model used in this article and the results obtained from its estimation are presented.
However, since the primary goal is to examine the impact of negative economic sanctions on the bilateral trade between Iran and its trading partners, model (9) is considered with a dummy variable representing these sanctions, which is as follows: Ln TRADEijt = b0 + b1 Ln GDPit + b2 Ln GDPjt + b3 Ln POPit (10) + b4 Ln POPjt +b5 Ln DISTij +b6SANCijt + uijt 1- Hufbauer et al, 1997.
In the following, how economic sanctions affect the volume of trade between Iran and its trading partners was examined by estimating model (10) based on information from 30 countries during the period 1352-1386.
7- Conclusion In this article, in order to examine the effect of sanctions on bilateral trade between Iran and its trading partners, the gravity model was considered in logarithmic form, and in addition to the variables of production, population, and distance, a dummy variable representing the years of sanctions was also included in the model.
Overall, the results obtained from estimating the gravity model in two states, with and without considering sanctions, indicate: The average logarithm of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of foreign partners as well as the GDP of Iran has a positive and significant effect on Iran's trade with foreign partners in the presence and absence of sanctions.
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