چکیده:
The main objective of this article is to examine the causal relationship between government incomes and expenditures. To achieve this goal and to investigate the asymmetric behavior of budget components, an asymmetric error correction model within the framework of Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) models was used with quarterly data for the period 1369-1389. The results indicate that between oil revenues and government expenditures, and between tax revenues and government expenditures, the hypothesis of simultaneous fiscal decision-making with asymmetric adjustment toward long-term equilibrium is confirmed. This result contradicts the findings obtained in all existing studies on the Iranian economy. The reason for this is the neglect of the asymmetric adjustment behavior of the budget deficit. Also, the result obtained is that in the long run, the reaction of budget components to budget imbalance is asymmetric. Therefore, the specific policy suggestion of this article for adjusting the budget deficit is that reforms in the pattern of government expenditure should take place simultaneously with the increase in government revenues. Additionally, by reforming the country's tax system, the government's reliance on oil revenues should be gradually reduced.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Asymmetric behavior in the budget adjustment process will occur if the reactions of government revenues and expenditures to positive deviations (budget surplus or improvement in budget deficit) and negative deviations (budget deficit or worsening of it) from the long-term equilibrium level are different in terms of adjustment speed and intensity.
(2006) also believe that it is possible that the behavior of revenues and expenditures in response to a budget surplus and deficit, or in other words, the improvement or worsening of the budget situation, is different 1- Legrenzi and Milas 2- Ewing et al 3- Zapf and Payne 4- In many studies conducted, asymmetric adjustment, asymmetric relationship, and nonlinear relationship have been considered equivalent to each other.
In Table (1), the estimation results of TAR and MTAR models have been calculated to examine the existence of asymmetric behavior of oil revenues and government expenditures.
Estimation results The asymmetric error correction model between oil revenues and government expenditures is presented in Table 3 (the optimal lag length was determined to be 7 using the AIC and SBC criteria).
Therefore, the results obtained from estimating the asymmetric error correction model confirm the hypothesis of cointegration between the oil revenue and government expenditure variables in the short term.
The estimation results of the TAR and MTAR models confirmed the existence of a long-term and asymmetric relationship between revenues (oil and tax) and government expenditures.
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