چکیده:
Although extensive studies exist regarding the role and efficiency of automatic stabilizers, few empirical studies have been conducted in this field. This research addresses an empirical study of the effects of fiscal policy as an automatic stabilizer. Using panel data techniques for a group of OPEC member countries (including Iran) during the period 1976-2009, this article examines the effects of automatic stabilizer instruments (adjusted for GDP) on business cycle fluctuations (measured by GDP, private consumption, and private GDP). The results from the model estimation indicate that there is a strong negative relationship between tax revenues (adjusted for GDP) and output fluctuations, suggesting that tax revenues in the studied countries operate effectively and are capable of smoothing output fluctuations. The estimation results show a strong positive relationship between government expenditures (adjusted for GDP) and output fluctuations, indicating that government expenditures are not effective as a fiscal policy tool and have exacerbated output fluctuations (consistent with RBC views). The use of control variables (degree of economic openness, GDP, GDP per capita, and GDP growth) in this section did not change the obtained results. Therefore, to smooth business cycle fluctuations in highly volatile countries, an increase in tax revenues (adjusted for GDP) through broadening the tax base is recommended.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Table 5- The effect of the marginal tax rate on output fluctuations in OPEC member countries during the years 1992-2009 Regression Panel model Pool 0/006 - -2/638634 (-0/0611) (1) Pool 0/33 3/785959 (5/132) 7/106648 (1/761) (2) Pool 0/32 -1/765382 (-5/005) 7/186511 (1/756) (3) * t-statistic in parentheses.
In the first equation of Table 6, we examine the relationship between the elasticity of fiscal policy relative to changes in the GDP growth rate and output fluctuations.
Table 1- The effect of the automatic stabilizer on total output fluctuations in OPEC member countries 3 Dependent variable -0/124047 (-1/539) -1/2915 (-5/759) 2/5339 (6/74) 0/03 0/3 0/57 Panel model Fixed effect pool Pool * t-statistic in parentheses.
Table 3- The effect of the automatic stabilizer on private output fluctuations in OPEC member countries Dependent variable 0/013006 (2/428) -0/17 (-2/344) 0/17 (2/95) 0/35 0/1 0/15 Pool pool Pool Panel model * t-statistic in parentheses.
In their model, government size was calculated using different tools, including the ratio of government expenditure to GDP, the ratio of taxes to GDP, and the ratio of transfers to GDP, and they measured fluctuations using the standard deviation of the GDP growth rate; however, it should be noted that because estimation with equations that consider the ratio of government expenditure to GDP as the government size yields better responses (in terms of significance and explanatory power), they primarily based their work on this foundation 2 The regression result showed a negative relationship between government size and output fluctuations.
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