چکیده:
Given the highly complex, competitive, and discontinuous transformation conditions in the world, Iranian universities and higher education institutions, as intelligent, self-regulating, and self-directing entities, have no choice but to steer their planning towards the pattern of foresight and strategic future studies. Foresight is, above all, an emerging epistemological approach to planning. In foresight, alternative futures are categorized into four levels: possible, plausible, probable, and preferable. Leading universities in the world have placed the foresight approach at the center of their planning. The aim of the present research was to achieve a conceptual and operational model for future studies in universities. The type of research was descriptive and analytical, using qualitative research methods such as content analysis of texts, resources, and academic experiences, and consulting subject matter experts. The scope of the research was non-medical public universities. Researcher-made tools, after validity checks, were used for the content analysis of higher education and university system documents, and semi-structured exploratory in-depth interviews were conducted with a purposeful sample of managers until data saturation was reached. The analysis method was qualitative content analysis of texts, and through triangulation of findings, a conceptual model was obtained and validated by a panel of experts and stakeholders. The research results achieved a conceptual model consisting of three pillars and eight process loops, in addition to twelve guiding principles for foresight in universities; finally, the drivers and shaping factors of the future of the Iranian university were typologized.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Qualitative analysis has helped to define and present the three pillars and eight process loops as much as possible based on the requirements of Iranian higher education and universities, and according to the lived experiences of university managers and experts participating in the research; in this regard, it can probably serve as a field for reflections and new discussions for our higher education foresight studies.
Creating the groundwork, coordination, and attracting the legal responsibilities and authorities of the university for participation in various foresight-based planning and strategic foresight processes at all levels, from educational and research groups and all units, fields, and various managerial and vice-presidential layers and specialized councils to the Board of Trustees, the University Council, and the Board of Regents; 2.
Environmental sustainability The conceptual model obtained in this research, while being consistent with the global experiences of universities and the findings of international research (Dator, 2006; Grocock, 2006; Harper & Georghiou, 2006; Inayatullah, 1999, 2007; McConnell & Munck, 2009), due to the application of the method transboundary, hyper-complexity, chaos and uncertainty, and paradigmatic / discursive transformations such as the shift from teacher-centeredness to learner-centeredness, the exit of science from the university's monopoly, the entrepreneurial university, etc.
Bunch of Guys Sat Around a Table (BOGSAT) The Center for Educational Research and Innovation 41, with the support of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), conducted a study in 2004 regarding academic future scenarios, in which key driving forces and challenges arising for higher education systems were investigated and described; the most important of which were: demographic shifts, tendency toward participation, transformations in the field of governance, transformation of financial resources, the knowledge economy, and new actors in higher education (2006, CERI).
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