چکیده:
Given the importance of the subject of crime and its harmful socio-economic effects, this article examines the economic factors affecting crime in Iran. To this end, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the Granger causality relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators and the crime rate is investigated during the years 1345-1385 for both short-term and long-term periods. The results show that in both the short and long term, there is a unidirectional Granger causality from the unemployment, poverty, and inflation rates to the crime rate. Therefore, considering that over the past few years, the rate of economic inflation has increased sharply, the unemployment rate has risen alarmingly, and the high cost of goods and services has become one of the biggest problems for individuals and families, it is appropriate that criminal activities are not only considered from an abstract legal concept, but in dealing with such crimes, the causes and factors of their commission—which are actually liquidity growth, increased inflation, high cost of goods and services, and increasing unemployment—must also be taken into account.
خلاصه ماشینی:
To this end, using the Vector Error Correction Model 4 (VECM), the Granger causality relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators and the crime rate during the years 1345-1385 is examined for both short-term and long-term periods.
Therefore, given that in recent years, the economic inflation rate has increased sharply, the unemployment rate has risen alarmingly, and the high cost of goods and services has become one of the biggest problems for individuals and families, it is appropriate that criminal activities are not only observed from a purely legal concept, but in dealing with such crimes, the causes and factors of their commission, which are actually liquidity growth, increased inflation, - Member of the faculty of Bu-Ali Sina University, Faculty of Economics, saeed_isazadeh@yahoo.
__________________________________________________________ 1- Engle and Granger 2- Weakly Exogenious 6- Model Presentation and Analysis of Empirical Results In this study, the relationship between crime and the variables of unemployment, inflation, and poverty is investigated using ARDL cointegration tests and Granger causality in the form of vector error correction models.
6-1- Results of the ARDL Cointegration Test To investigate the existence or non-existence of a long-term relationship between the variables of unemployment, inflation, poverty, and crime, we must estimate the following autoregressive equations.
Considering the results of tables 4, 5, and 6 and the insignificance of the DLC variable as well as the error correction terms (ଶߣ, ଷߣ, and ଷߣ) in the short and long term, there is no Granger causality relationship from crime to unemployment, inflation, and poverty.
(
, 
, 
)
