چکیده:
The aim of this study is to examine the effects of tax revenues and current and development expenditures as fiscal policy tools on macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic Product, total investment, private consumption, and inflation in the Iranian economy, using quarterly data during the period 1373:2 - 1385:1. In this regard, a Vector Autoregression econometric model was used. The results obtained indicate that the amount of taxes, current expenditures, and development expenditures have positive effects, while the real interest rate has a negative effect on Gross Domestic Product; development expenditures have a small share in creating investment fluctuations. Given the large share of current expenditures and tax revenues in creating fluctuations in Gross Domestic Product, the use of development expenditures as a fiscal policy lever over current expenditures and tax revenues is preferred. Considering the results obtained, it cannot be expected that government current expenditures and taxes possess sufficient influence in providing economic stability.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Variables of Iran's Economy: An Approach Using the Vector Autoregression Method Dr. Esmail Abu Nouri, Professor of Econometrics and Social Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran{o*o} Dr. Saeed Karimi Potanlar, Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran{o**o} Mohammad Reza Mardani, Senior Expert of the Department of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University, Qaenat Branch{o***o} Received Date: 87/4/3 Accepted Date: 87/10/25 Pages: 117-143 The aim of this study is to examine the effects of tax revenues and current and capital expenditures as fiscal policy tools on macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), total investment, private consumption, and inflation in the Iranian economy, using quarterly data during the period 1373:2-1385:1.
(Refer to the page image) For the cointegration test, the effects of fiscal policy on the variables of gross domestic product, investment, private consumption, and inflation in the Iranian economy during the quarters 2:1373-1:1385 have been examined in the form of the following models: (Refer to the page image) in which PDGL is the logarithm of gross domestic product, RTL is the logarithm of tax revenues, CPL is the logarithm of private consumption, RAJL is the logarithm of current expenditures, RMOL is the logarithm of development expenditures, FR is the real interest rate, and ORG is economic growth based on the retail price index of the year 1376.
According to the variance decomposition chart, the share of Gross Domestic Product instability against shocks to tax revenue and current expenditures increases up to the fifteenth period and decreases thereafter.
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