چکیده:
The present study addresses the measurement of core inflation in the Iranian economy using various statistical approach methods as a guide for directing monetary policy. The use of core inflation (as it increases signaling relative to disturbances) leads to increased efficiency of monetary policy. This occurs because core inflation separates the stable component of inflation (resulting from fundamental economic pressures) from the transitory component (resulting from seasonal fluctuations, etc.). The results of the present study show that in the Iranian economy, the 'food and education exclusion method' is considered the most appropriate method for measuring core inflation. On the other hand, the 'housing group' is a stable component of inflation in the Iranian economy and is consistent with expectations. Based on the obtained results, to control inflation in the Iranian economy, the adoption of an 'inflation targeting' policy framework within a five-year program is proposed.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Measuring Core Inflation in the Iranian Economy Based on a Statistical Approach Dr. Hossein Abbasi-Nejad, Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran{o*o} Dr. Akbar Kamijani, Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran{o**o} Dr. Ali Tayebnia, Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran{o***o} Dr. Ahmad Tashkini, Assistant Professor, Institute for Commercial Studies and Research{o****o} Date Received: 88/2/9 Date Accepted: 88/6/7 Pages: 39-65 This study addresses the measurement of core inflation in the Iranian economy using various statistical approach methods, as a guide for directing monetary policy.
Implementing the said framework requires several essential components, including selecting the target level; meaning that an explicit quantitative target is considered as the inflation target for the desired future periods; selecting the target range is chosen due to the imperfect control of monetary policy over the inflation rate{o1o}, the inflation target horizon (the time horizon for achieving the set target must be taken into account){o2o}, inflation forecasting (due to existing lags in the effectiveness of monetary policies, the inflation target must have a forward-looking view, meaning that policies are implemented before the inflation rate increases), and selecting the appropriate price index.
{o1o} * Sorting-based method{o2o}: In this method, core inflation is obtained by removing a certain percentage of the largest and smallest price changes in the components of the aggregate index.
(Refer to the page image) C) From the product of the new importance coefficients and the monthly growth rate of each of the main groups, the core inflation for the period 1:1383 to 7:1387 has been extracted (Chart 4).
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