چکیده:
The main objectives of this study are the determining factors of economic fluctuations in the short and long term and how the economy dynamically reacts to structural aggregate supply and demand shocks. The findings of this study regarding the business cycle phenomenon in Iran indicate that oil revenues are one of the most important causes of the creation and volatility of the business cycle phenomenon in the Iranian economy. In this regard, initially, using annual data from the years 1338 - 1385, the Baxter and King band-pass filter approach was used to decompose the cyclical components from the trend, and then the Granger causality test was used to examine the causal relationships between the cycles of aggregate demand components and the reference cycle (real GDP with and without oil); subsequently, to identify structural shocks based on an aggregate supply and demand pattern, the structural vector autoregression system approach was used using the Blanchard and Quah long-term restrictions. The results obtained from the structural shocks show complete consistency with the theoretical relationships of the aggregate supply and demand functions. The speed of adjustment of total production in response to structural aggregate supply and demand shocks is different; for example, in relation to the supply shock, it lasts four to five periods, and in response to the demand shock, it lasts six to seven periods. The reaction to the structural shock on the aggregate demand side is much more intense and longer than the structural aggregate supply shock. The results of the structural forecast error variance decomposition suggest that most of the changes in total production are explained by the structural aggregate supply shock in the short and long term, and the results of this decomposition for prices show that the major part of price changes is explained by the shock coming from the structural aggregate demand.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Investigating the effects of short-term and long-term shocks on the aggregate supply and demand pattern in the Iranian economy Dr. Kambiz Hejbar Kiani, Professor at Shahid Beheshti University{o*o} Dr. Farhad Ghaffari, Assistant Professor at Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch{o**o} Received date: 87/7/30 Accepted date: 87/10/28 Pages: 87-116 The determining factors of economic fluctuations in the short-term and long-term periods and how the economy reacts dynamically to structural aggregate supply and demand shocks are among the main objectives of this study.
In this regard, initially, using annual data from the years 1338-1385, the Baxter and King band-pass frequency filter was used to decompose the cyclical components from the trend, and then using the Granger causality test, the causal relationships between the cycles of aggregate demand components and the reference cycle (real GDP with and without oil) were examined; subsequently, to identify structural shocks based on an aggregate supply and demand pattern, the structural vector autoregressive system approach using Blanchard and Quah long-run restrictions was used.
In Iran too, studies have been conducted in the field of the business cycle phenomenon, including Nili and Dargahi (1399) in a study titled "Causes of the Emergence of Recessionary Status in the Iranian Economy," who generally examined the causes of the decrease in the growth rate of the real volume of economic activities in Iran in two dimensions: demand-side developments and supply-side developments of the economy; the results of their pattern estimation confirm the significant effects of shocks related to imports, money supply, and exchange rates.
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