چکیده:
The reciprocal reaction between economic growth and environmental quality is a controversial topic that has gained attention since the 1990s. Empirical studies have focused on the relationship between per capita income and various types of pollution, thereby ignoring technical progress and environmental policy. This article presents, for the first time (in Iran), a dynamic simulation model for the quantitative analysis of environmental policy in Iran. In this model, using energy supply and demand equations, the emission path of environmental pollutants is simulated. The energy demand equation is a function of price, income, and population, which is estimated using the ordinary least squares method. In the supply equation, two separate cases are considered: existing polluting technologies and low-pollution technologies. The model is simulated for three pollutants (carbon dioxide, sulfur oxides, and particulate matter) according to different scenarios. The results show that income remains an important variable in determining the amount of pollution emission, and by implementing an environmental policy of substituting natural gas with petroleum products, pollutants can be reduced earlier than what the Environmental Kuznets Curve indicates; however, this does not mean the excessive use of this renewable energy; therefore, by adopting appropriate pricing policies and investing in clean technologies, pollution can be reduced along with increasing income.
خلاصه ماشینی:
In this model, using energy supply and demand equations, the emission path of environmental pollutants is simulated.
The results show that income remains an important variable in determining the amount of pollution emission, and by implementing an environmental policy of substituting natural gas with petroleum products, pollutants can be reduced earlier than what the Environmental Kuznets Curve indicates; however, this does not mean the excessive use of this renewable energy; therefore, by adopting appropriate pricing policies and investing in clean technologies, pollution can be reduced along with increasing income.
This model is examined in two states, to show different environmental policies, and in four different scenarios of economic growth and price for three pollutants: carbon dioxide, sulfur oxides, and particulate matter; finally, in the fifth section, we address the evaluation of results and policy recommendations.
These models are used to estimate energy demand at all consumer levels, without taking into account the technological structure of consumption networks they take into account, therefore engineering methods or process analysis were created, but the failure to consider economic variables such as price and income has been a drawback of these models and has limited their use due to the need for accurate and complete information.
On the other hand, the second expression on the right side of the model (refer to the page image) indicates that through environmental policies and the use of clean technologies, pollutant emissions can be reduced in a shorter period of time.
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