چکیده:
Earthquakes, as one of the most significant geotechnical hazards, often threaten the regions of the Iranian plateau. The importance of earthquake hazard in our country has increased due to the intensifying trend of urban expansion and the concentration of population and capital. Tehran, as the most important city in terms of population and economic and social infrastructure, faces high risk against earthquake hazards due to the presence of several active faults around and within it. Accordingly, investigating the seismic vulnerability of this city and finding the best model to examine this vulnerability is one of the necessities of urban management in Tehran. Given this importance, District 1 of Tehran Municipality was selected as the study area. The research method and analysis of collected information are carried out using database-based methods and utilizing the Radius software. Three scenarios, based on the three faults of North Tehran, Moshā, and Rey, were considered to estimate potential earthquake damages in the study area. The results indicate that based on the Moshā fault scenario, 9,873 buildings will be destroyed and 2,371 people will be killed; according to the North Tehran fault scenario, 17,867 buildings will be destroyed and 7,482 people will be killed; and based on the Rey fault scenario, 3,998 buildings will be destroyed and 347 people will be killed. Areas 4, 2, 7, and 8 will have the highest level of vulnerability based on the considered scenarios. In the North Tehran fault scenario, the highest damages occur, while in the Rey fault scenario, the lowest damages are inflicted on the region.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The research method and analysis of collected information are carried out using database-based methods and by utilizing the RADIUS program**, and three scenarios, based on the three faults of North Tehran, Masha, and Rey, were considered for estimating the damages caused by a potential earthquake in the study area.
-Preparing and collecting the required information based on the RADIUS model, such as the number of buildings in the study area considering their structure type and usage, the number of building floors, the total population of the area, and the vital arteries of the area (street network, water reservoirs, electricity and telecommunication posts, water and sewage lines, gas stations), soil and geological data, and 1/52000 topographic maps from the relevant organizations.
1-7-Introduction of Variables and Indices -The number of buildings in the study area considering their structure type and usage, the number of building floors, the total population of the area, and the vital arteries of the area (street network, water reservoirs, electricity and telecommunications, water and sewage lines, gas stations) from Tehran District 1 Municipality; -Soil and geological data from JICA studies; -1/52000 topographic maps from the National Cartographic Organization; -Use of Geographic Information System software, Arc GIS and Excel.
Table 3- Status of vital arteries in District 1 of Tehran Municipality (Refer to the page image) Source: Authors 3-5- Determining the earthquake scenario In this research, in order to create a suitable image of the occurrence of damage in this region and to prepare for various types of possible damages resulting from a potential earthquake in this area, three earthquakes caused by the activation of three faults—Rey, Mosha, and North Tehran—were considered.
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