چکیده:
The aim of this research is to model and analyze the economic effects resulting from an increase in oil revenues. In this regard, using a computable general equilibrium model, the effects of this shock on prices, activity levels, exports, and imports of the productive sectors of the Iranian economy, as well as on welfare indices and household and government expenditure indices, are investigated. Given the role of non-tradable sectors in the Dutch disease phenomenon, the supply and demand functions of non-tradable goods and services (such as the housing rental sector, the government services sector, and the construction sector) are first simulated. Since part of the demand for construction is investment demand, this study introduces the building capital asset into the computable general equilibrium model, thereby evaluating and considering construction demand separately into investment demand and consumption demand. In this study, the effects of a hypothetical 30 percent increase in annual oil income are simulated. The results obtained show that this shock will lead to an increase in the level of activity in non-tradable sectors and a decrease in the level of activity in tradable sectors. The service and industrial sectors face the highest increases in imports by 24% and 22%, respectively. Except for the oil and gas sector, all productive sectors experience a decrease in exports. The government services, water, and construction sectors will have the highest price increases. The results do not show sensitivity to changes in the elasticity of substitution of production, while the sensitivity of the results to changes in the elasticity of substitution of imports and domestic products is high.
خلاصه ماشینی:
In this regard, using a computable general equilibrium model, the effects of this shock on prices, activity levels, exports, and imports of the productive sectors of the Iranian economy, as well as on welfare indices and household and government expenditure indices, are investigated.
With this approach, this research investigates the effect of increased oil revenues on the price, activity level, exports, and imports of the productive sectors of the Iranian economy, with a focus on non-tradable sectors, as well as on the welfare index and the expenditure index of households and the government.
In this study, the impact of increased income from natural resources on unbalanced economic growth and the change in the composition of activities was calculated using a computable general equilibrium model with 92 productive sectors.
The effects of a hypothetical 3% increase in oil revenues on the price level, activity level, volume of imports and exports, as well as changes in the cost and welfare indices of the government and households, have been simulated within the framework of the proposed model.
In this article, the impact of an oil income shock on the price level and sectoral activity, export volume, imports, welfare index, and cost index within the framework of an 11-sector computable general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy has been calculated.
After calibrating the model, the effects resulting from a 3% oil income shock on the activity level, imports, exports, and price level of production sectors, as well as the change in household welfare, have been evaluated.
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