چکیده:
Power plants are considered one of the essential infrastructures for economic development, and currently, numerous power plant projects are being implemented in the country. Due to various reasons such as technical complexity, the need for significant Rial and foreign currency resources, the need for special equipment, and the correlation between different phases, these projects are exposed to multiple risks; therefore, effective risk management is one of the requirements for these projects. On the other hand, there are still significant deficiencies in the field of assessing and selecting risk mitigation measures for projects. In this article, an optimization model is proposed that holistically examines the work breakdown structure, risk events, risk mitigation measures, secondary risks, and their impacts. The goal of the model is to minimize the total expected loss, which includes the cost of implementing measures and the expected adverse effects on project time, cost, and quality. The relevant objective function coefficients are determined through the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Furthermore, to validate the model, a case study was conducted on power plant projects in Iran. Based on the results obtained, the proposed model leads to significant improvements in project time, cost, and quality.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Presenting a model for reducing risk in power plant projects based on a multi-objective optimization approach and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process Seyyed Hesamuddin Zegordi* Associate Professor, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Zegordi@modares.
The objective of the proposed model is to minimize the total expected loss, which includes the cost of implementing actions and the expected adverse effects on project time, cost, and quality.
The goal of the proposed model is to minimize the total expected loss, which includes the cost of implementing actions and the expected adverse effects on the time, cost, and quality of the project.
(Refer to page image) Source: Research findings Figure 1- Proposed model framework for evaluating and selecting project risk responses In the proposed model, three key criteria for project success, including time, cost, and quality, are considered.
Based on the definitions provided, the costs of implementing risk abatement actions1 (AAC) are obtained from the following relationship: (4)(Refer to page image) If no response is selected, the expected time, cost, and quality effects of the risks are obtained from relationships 5 to 7.
(2006), the aggregation of opinions is calculated through the following relationship: (62)(Refer to page image) Table 1- Linguistic expressions and fuzzy numbers for pairwise comparisons of the objective function weight coefficients (Refer to page image) Source: Research findings Evaluating the Impact of Risks In order to measure the effects of risks on project time, cost, and quality, well-known tools such as Work Breakdown Structure2 (WBS), Cost Breakdown Structure3 (CBS), and Quality Breakdown Structure4 (QBS) are used.
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